What do Russia and Germany Plan in Karabakh?
After the April war serious turning points have been recorded in peaceful settlement of Karabakh conflict. Inclination of the conflicting parties towards negotiations has changed, as well as the degree of external mediator’s engagement—the USA step by step gave way to Russia, which, in its turn attempted to share its “responsibility” with Germany, which presides OSCE this year. Following the war, Sergey Lavrov, RF MFA, who visited Yerevan, stated by that he expects support from Germany, in controlling Russian proposals including implementation of 1994-1995 agreements, in case, when earlier the USA exerted serious efforts in implementation of mechanisms for control, and France offered to install those devices.
However, these proposals, as expected—as the Russian party was avoiding to touch upon them— have been put aside due to Russia-Germany joint work, and a new process has been launched with Germany’s more active and the USA’s more passive participation. Moreover, this cooperation is bilateral, as Germany also recognized Russia’s special role on NK conflict zone in its official statements, claiming, Russia is able to support the settlement process. These days James Warlick, distinguished by inactivity non-typical for him, touching upon Germany’s follow-ups, clarified, “Together with the Co-chairs Germany systematically shapes proposals referring to means directed to reduction of the risk for violence on Armenia-Azerbaijan border. We will work with the sides, to invest those means, and we hope negotiations on comprehensive settlement will be launched as soon as possible. If we want to record a progress in peace, it’s necessary, that work was performed in both directions without preconditions.” The USA tries to control Russia by all means, keeping constant talks with Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Note, upon the initiative of the USA the forth telephone conversation was launched between Sergey Lavrov, RF MFA, and John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State, on May 10, who in line with other issues, discussed the existent situation on NK conflict zone. However, Germany, according to some standpoints, is determined, and basically, that mood will be developed these days, when negotiations of “Normandy Four” foreign ministers have been launched in Berlin, participants of which are Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Sergey Lavrov.
According to some information and analysts, including Alexander Rar, member of Russian Valdai Discussion club, Germany intends to use its presidency in OSCE to make European Neighborhood safer, by strengthening OSCE tools. Rar also touched upon the possibility of deploying OSCE peacekeeping mission on the conflict zones. According to him, for the time being Germany is seeking for ways in OSCE strengthening and restoration of OSCE possibilities.
Manvel Sargsyan, head of Armenian Center for Strategic and National Research, told “168 Hours” that intensive procedures have been launched regarding the conflict settlement. He highlighted the fact, that Sergey Lavrov, RF MFA, has passed on the mechanism investment issue to Germany, “If you remember, Azerbaijan had a rather negative attitude towards the idea of implementation of control mechanisms, and Russia attempts to more and more improve its ties with Azerbaijan, and it’s clearly observed, that Russia avoids to assume direct responsibility for implementation of these mechanisms. Of course, Russia adopted this resolution together with OSCE MG Co-chairs, however, Russia avoided its implementation, and passed it on to Germany, avoiding tension with Azerbaijan. moreover, when from Russia’s standpoint an insoluble situation has been established in Russia-Azerbaijan relations, as Azerbaijan sent a protest note to Russia on armaments to be supplied to Armenia, and Russia is under great pressure, as a result of which it prevented arms selling to Armenia, and secondly, it passed on this initiative to Germany, and the latter appears in favor of OSCE, as Serzh Sargsyan applied to Germany, commenting on the fact that Russia is selling armaments to Azerbaijan, i.e. all threads are leading to Germany, and it’s clear, that various versions are being discussed,” Manvel Sargsyan said.
In his conviction, under this situation it’s useless speaking of OSCE peacekeeping mission, as final resolution should be made between the conflicting parties, “What should they follow, if there is no any resolution, peacekeepers can’t do anything under these conditions, and the sides will also be against. There is some skepticism towards peacekeepers in the whole world, as people already know, that peacekeepers pursue their own policy on the conflict zone, and this idea doesn’t fit into the reality, there is war, a Line of Contact, and there is unchanged disposition, without agreements disposition won’t change,” Sargsyan said. In the latter’s conviction, for the time being Germany is discussing different possibilities. “They also don’t know clearly what mechanisms they may touch upon, these are talks, yet at the development stage,” the analyst said. In his opinion, the same refers the proposal of installation of control mechanisms. “Not everything is clear regarding this issue as well, and it needs to be finalized,” he noticed.
Uwe Halbach, German expert, told “168 Hours” that Germany, as OSCE MG presiding Co-chair, should do more, than its predecessors. “There is clear understanding after Ukraine, that Europe is surrounded by hotbeds of instability, and they may blast at any moment, including Karabakh conflict, which showed its face in early April, and there is clear understanding that they may be controlled, by strengthening OSCE functions, which have essentially weakened. In this direction, as I have repeatedly mentioned recently, Germany does an essential job by its officials—Steinmeier and Merkel. German authorities seek for exits around conflicts of both Ukraine and Karabakh. Numerous proposals are available, but they all are at the discussion phase. It’s important, that OSCE MG Co-chairs manifest unity and anxiety, and which support Germany in this issue,” Halbach said.
In the latter’s anticipations till the end of the year results of Germany’s work will be visible. He stated, that Germany is a connecting circle between Russia and the West, and may have certain role in the settlement of the conflicts, as it has authority both in Russia and the West. “Steps by Germany won’t be counteracted neither by Russia, nor by the West. I consider, Germany will be constructive, and clear proposals on implementation of mechanisms, meetings between the presidents will be launched,” he said. To the question that Germany has serious connections with Turkish-speaking countries and whether it’s possible that it’ll conclude anti-Armenian accords with Russia and Azerbaijan, Halbach replied that Germany will act as an OSCE presiding country.
By Araks Martirosyan
