The April nightmare may resume: Uwe Halbach
“OSCE MG Co-Chairs have no other way out, than implementation of a hard power towards installation of investigative mechanisms in the contact line and on the border,” German analyst Uwe Halbach, specialized in the South Caucasus issues, told 168.am, reflecting to the Karabakh conflict settlement process.
U.S. Co-Chair James Warlick stated in Baku, that there are many components of the conflict settlement on the negotiation table. Warlick stated that there is no information yet on the forthcoming Azerbaijan-Armenia presidential meeting. Commenting on the statement by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, that leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan aren’t ready for NK conflict settlement, Warlick stated that Kerry is disposed to work with the sides towards peaceful settlement of the conflict, thus, it’s important that the parties to the conflict were also disposed to find ways for the peaceful settlement.
“I know, that Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev is ready to work around negotiations and proposals on the table, as well as he is ready for further discussions with Armenia’s leader. We’d like to follow responsibilities, assumed in Vienna and St. Petersburg, although some details are available towards which it’s necessary to continue the work. We’ll discuss it at the forthcoming presidential meeting,” he said.
Uwe Halbach said, that James Warlick simply used a diplomatic language, stating that presidents are ready to work around those proposals. According to Halbach, obviously the presidents are constrained both by internal and external factors, which doesn’t allow to settle the conflict, agreeing on concessions.
“Societies of the conflicting countries have been brought up in an environment, under a propaganda, that currently they suffer economic and social difficulties, which don’t allow the societies to observe concession in NK conflict settlement process. Authorities of both countries, in their turn, are not so strong to have the courage to make likewise decisions. Currently there is the intention not to finally settle the conflict, as the settlement will attach the societies’ attention on internal issues, which have been easily ignored as a result of the situation in the contact line.
Naturally, the situation in Syria and Ukraine, in its turn, prevents the co-Chairs, as there are many discordances and it’s known that the USA and Russia pursue different interests in the South Caucasus. The latter intends to be the only country of influence, the USA doesn’t have such ambitions, however, it can’t ignore the region, which is of strategic importance for it,” the German analyst said. According to the latter, obviously, these issues instigate the presidents to suspend negotiations for some period, which the Co-Chairs realize, and which is even visible behind the lines of the diplomatic text.
“The Co-Chairs have no other way out, than applying tougher diplomatic power regarding installation of investigative mechanisms, as the April nightmare may resume again,” Halbach said.
By Araks Martirosyan
