“Serious tension on the border will be considerably reflected in final snapshot of the election process”
Interview with Armen Badalyan, political and electoral technologies’ expert.
Mr. Badalyan election campaign of upcoming parliamentary elections was launched on March 5. Judging from social moods, essence of some of which is boycott, what election campaign and election fight is anticipated?
We may say that interest is noticed among the society due to efforts of political powers taking part in the elections, not toward content of election process, but election bribe. My observations show that probably very many people won’t take part in it under absence of election bribe, not by boycotting, out of political motives, as boycott is a political process, in this case simply indifference dominates, rather than boycott.
If there is no money interest, naturally interest toward this election process fades, which turns the process into financial-criminal phenomenon. This is for public anticipations. Of course, it won’t be correct touching upon the whole society, as a part voting not by money and showing interest towards election process, is rather small, and different observations show that financial, election bribe part of election processes interests about 50% of voters.
Certain interest is observed among the other part over the occurrences, however, it isn’t explained by the campaign, but by several circumstances. Social moods and anticipations may be divided into two parts: voters by election bribe—if not election bribe, they won’t take part, as they don’t connect their future with this political system, and the other part has certain hopes, thus, participates in the voting.
As for the content of negotiations, ordinary, standard campaign is anticipated, everybody proposes factors, which they consider proper, extraordinarily good, varying campaign isn’t anticipated. Each of the powers offers, which according to it, will have a demand among the society.
Is there any power, which may become a real alternative to the leading political party?
It’s one of the widely spread mistakes, when we see attempts among representatives of the political field to position themselves as alternative powers. The issue is that during elections no the authorities and the opposition are struggling, but the political parties, and it doesn’t matter whether it was the leadership or opposition, and call themselves opposition, political parties and alliances are taking part in the elections, and the issue is that they should manifest themselves as an alternative, but they should show the way they propose to their voters.
This isn’t a double-party system, but a multi-party, even here they’re mistaken. In Armenia political powers are competing against one another to have votes of the electorate, the fact of being the leadership is being used by the contestants, however, this is a struggle to gain votes. The voter is guided by other principles.
Which ones?
He/she votes taking into account the circumstance whether the political power, proposing something complies with his/her imaginations or not, the power or the leader of that power. If yes, he/she will vote for it. Also there is electorate voting on the spot, and that number isn’t small.
In your opinion which alliances will form the new Parliament?
For the time being it’s difficult to say, that currently situation on Karabakh-Azerbaijan line of contact is yet calm. If military operations are launched, and the Armenian side records big losses, out of clear reasons it may be reflected in the final snapshot of election process. If current situation is maintained, a different political snapshot will be observed.
If peace is relatively maintained, in all likelihood, we see that RPA will win, “Tsarukyan” alliance will also appear in the Parliament, Communist Party won’t pass, and others have 50/50% likelihood.
During the campaign the content shouldn’t be stressed, insisting if any party prepares a successful footage, it’ll have an effect on the voter, as the campaign is briefing of former 4-5 years of that power, one should have done something to show, and not propose from zero, in that case no power will reach success, they all lame in that field, so they attempt to bypass this issue.
If tension is recorded on the line of contact, what exit should be anticipated?
I consider maybe hatred will intensify not toward the authorities, but RPA, and in that case the latter will face serious issues, if we bring 1-2 bodies from the border every day, it’s another issue, but if the April War repeats, it’ll bring a different reflection and no one can say what it’ll be like: will election process be suspended or no, will hatred against RPA intensify or not? It’s difficult to say, but it may have an effect.
By Araks Martirosyan
