It will be difficult for Russia to oppose if Karabakh joins Armenia now
Interview with Konstantin Kalachov, head of the Russian Experts’ Group
-Mr. Kalachov, even during the past century the map of Europe did not change so fast. What is your opinion about the geopolitical situation in this continent?
-Everyone knows the artificial craftsmanship of drawing the borders of the USSR that existed at that time. There is a principle about integrity of borders, and there is also a principle of nations’ self-determination. The people of Arstakh used their right for self-determination. Personally I am for the principle of integrity of borders; however, it is not the right thing to go against facts that are reality. If there are Russians who are not happy about the Crimea’s return, they have no heart, and if there are Russians who don’t understand the difficult implications the Crimea’s integration, they are foolish. Relations between Russia and Ukraine were complicated over many years. Russia and Ukraine are like Armenia and Azerbaijan now. We are still tackling friendship with Ukraine but that cannot last long. I am absolutely sure that no one has ownership of the reality and everyone has his/her truth. If Putin believes that Russia is so strong that it can resist the pressure of the rest of the world, it is his right approved by votes of the majority of the Russian people. I do not like that idea of extreme situations but I understand that Russia will be faced with difficult times, and the implications of all this will be seen later. Europe needs time too because they need substitute for the Russian energy, and many of them do not relate to Russia as to a reliable partner. On the other hand, there are countries that like the idea that there is someone in the world that could oppose to the US and showed power, and many people admire with Putin not only in Russia. There are two sides of the coin, and there cannot be one opinion only.
-The US and Europe are very firm in their stance, and they propose initiatives in the UN. The US has decided to freeze accounts of Russian officials. Hillary Clinton announced that Russia’s actions should be punished. The EU announced about imposing sanctions on Russia. What is next, according to your opinion? What to expect?
-There are going to be more problems but fortunately Clinton is not the US president; the US president is Barack Obama. If the president of the US was Ronald Reagan, we would be faced with a complex of sanctions. Now we have to deal with half-sanctions. Russia is one of the most important forty trade partners for the US. Europe has issues too because for Germany it is difficult without the Russian gas. Many countries that used to think of Russia as a realizable counterpart have changed their opinion. Angela Merkel has changed her attitude to Russia very drastically during the recent years. There will be problems but there can be good things out of this to. Ultimately Russia will understand that it cannot rely on gas and natural resources any more, and it has to rely on other domestic resources as well. Russia will have to diversify its economy, boost agriculture and replace import with domestic production.
It is also an important factor that the West does not want Russians to have an attitude of enemy toward the West. That is why the sanctions are “sky sanctions.” There are many people who do not like the Russian political elite as they believe that they are separate from people, and this is the reason why many people are happy about these sanctions. I think the West does not want the Russian people have negative attitude toward them so that they do not become a society like the one in North Korea, where everyone blindly believes that they have to be the enemy of the US. In our country many people do not like the US, but there are others who like them. At present these sanctions are not scary. Even more, the Russian Central Bank has taken measures not to allow the Russian ruble skyfall after the Crimean crisis, and since then the ruble has even become stronger. The question is whether the West will continue this too long, and whether Russian businesses will be able to borrow from international markets and whether the embargo will touch them too. At some point Europe will be able to cut down the volume of Russian gas consumption but developing stronger ties with China will take time. This means that there may be more problems but there is euphoria that society is ready to pay for it. The question is how long this will last and whether at some point it may not become unacceptable for the Russian society.
-What next? Rumors say that the next one is Kazakhstan.
-The foreign ministry of Kazakhstan has made a statement that they relate to the actions of Russia in Ukraine and the right of self-determination of the Crimean people with understanding. However, I think that this was done more for keeping peace as there is no sense to spoil the relations as economic relations are developing. However, I think the government of Kazakhstan will do their best to change the situation in the northern parts, where there are many Russians. The policy of Kazakhstan during the past twenty years has been tending to have majority of their local native population in all regions. I think they will take this lesson and will try to make sure Russians are not majority in any region in Kazakhstan. I think Belarus president Lukashenko should be happy about this too because he is no more the only bad guy in Europe; the worst guy in Europe is Putin. Lukashenko can also be used as a card for maneuvering with Russia. By the way, in 1926 the Russian regions of Gomel and Vitebsk were separated from Russia and given to Belarus. One should know the history to say what was taken and given from one to someone else. All borders are disputable, and there are border issues with Kirgizstan and Kazakhstan as well, and in Karabakh also.
-Zhirinovski said that if Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot come to a final decision Karabakh may join Russia.
-There is such opinion too but I think this is not mainstream. I tend to believe that at some point Azerbaijan will try to solve the conflict problem with armed intervention, and this is the reason why Azerbaijan is spending huge money to modernize and arm their army. It is another issue that the example of Russia and the Crimea cannot be used here. If Russia went deeper into Ukraine’s territory, more to the South-Eastern areas, maybe Azerbaijan would try to use the chance as it would be difficult to provide support to Armenia within the context of the Collective Security Treaty. Thanks to God there was no active war between Russia and Ukraine.
-What do you think the implication of the Crimea example can be on Karabakh?
-I meet many Azeri journalists who have psychological problems in relation to the Karabakh conflict issue, and as they are very negative to Armenia, you cannot discuss anything with them. They are more concerned of Armenia’s relations with Russia and possible support Armenia may receive in case of armed conflict. For this reason Azerbaijan is interested that Russia becomes weak; the weaker Russia is, the more aggressive Azerbaijan can become. There is no problem related to the issue of Crimea but there are issues related to the precedent, which means that there are direct or indirect losses. The results may be seen in the future. Now it will be very difficult for Russia if Karabakh joins Armenia because there is precedent, and it will be strange why something would not be allowed for Armenia in case if it is allowed for Russia. Karabakh is populated by Armenians and that is their territory, which was also for the most part the same for Russians in the Crimea. This is not the same situation but there is some similarity. On the other hand, Russia became precedent that may encourage others to rethink about borders. Russia insists on the fact that this is an unprecedented case, and it was the fault of the Ukrainian non-legitimate government, and they would not interfere should not had it happened. Accordingly, other situations should not be treated the same way. There are Tatars in the Crimea too, and Turkey has their interests. This is a complicated issue that concerns Russia, Turkey and Armenia, Azerbaijan as well. The order of things in the world has changed, and there is no way back.
-There are opinions that the Kremlin is trying to take us back to the Soviet times, and the Customs Union integration process tends to serve for this goal. What do you think about such opinion?
-I do not agree with that. The Kremlin and Putin have generated a feeling of nostalgia toward the Soviet times among many Russians. Today I heard rumors that ITAR-TASS news agency is going to be renamed as TASS – the way it used to be called during the Soviet times. This nostalgia on a massive land is an important factor because Putin is governed by such opinion of the majority. On the other hand, building our state with a model that brings other people into one system with Russia reminds of the Soviet model. Now when they remember those times and refer to the rights of other Russians it is different because during the Soviet times other nations had the same rights as Russians. In this case, however, it turns out that the rights are equal but some of them have “more equal rights.” Certainly now they have to choose between Russia with the Crimea when Russia is focused on itself, or the Eurasia integration. It is very difficult to combine these two.
By Gayane Khachatryan
