Vadim Dubnov: Russia enjoys the fact that the situation in the Karabakh conflict zone gets strained
Interview with the Russian «Novosti» news agency’s analyst: Vadim Dubnov
-Mr. Dubnov, what is your opinion of the statement of the Russian ministry of foreign affairs in regards to the tension in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone last month? We had another subversive act by the Azerbaijani forces, but our strategic partner didn’t condemn the provocative actions of Azerbaijani side.
-You know, Russia should first of all try to get out of the situation, in which it appeared because it is in the Collective Security Pact (CSTO), its ambiguous role in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Customs Union and its own problems with Azerbaijan. Russia wouldn’t wish these problems turn into open conflicts. Moscow speaks a lot what he doesn’t like about Azerbaijan and then it comes to concrete agreements when it comes to concrete projects. In the meantime, everybody expects that Russia should fortify its positions in the South Caucasus. I think in a way Russia enjoys from the fact that the situation is getting very tensed in the region.
-But why?
-I think on the one hand Russia likes that the situation becomes strained on the border, and on the other hand it understands that in case if the conflict escalates it will be very difficult to predict the possible consequences, that’s why it tries to show some retraint.
-And how does it benefit Russia? Does it strengthen its positions in the Caucasus more?
-I don’t think so because I don’t think that Russia strengthens its positions in Azerbaijan. Maybe it is the opposite. But relations with Azerbaijan are built through elites and the elites of the two countries have big interests together. As of Armenia, then it is true that Russia is fortifying its positions here. As you know a lot has been spoken that Armenia is going to enter the Customs Union based on its security needs. I think it is a big bluff because there was no issue with security. And Armenia is not threatened by anything and Russia isn’t going to defend Armenia if anything happens. The government of Armenia is trying to bring up the necessity of security guarantees in order to get rid of telling the people of their personal interests in the Union: it is much more safe for Serzh Sargsyan to join the Customs Union, and what about the other actors of the Armenian policy, it’s just profitable for them to play that game called “Customs Union”.
-Does this bluff more belong to the Armenian government or Russia?
-It is well coordinated because it is a joint game. There was a moment when Sargsyan was trying to get rid of this bluff but he was soon reminded if he wanted to quit there would be new rules of a game created, and his old friends oligarchs, former presidents wouldn’t leave him in peace, if the Kremlin was annoyed with Sargsyan.
-How does Russia strengthen its positions within the Armenian elite?
-Russia has what it needs in Armenia. It owns and controls the businesses in Armenia. And as we witnessed recently in the case of “ArmRusgasprom” company, Russia has the opportunity to block the functioning of other businesses. The bets aren’t very high in Armenia for Russia to get super tense. In the military aspect, as they say military base in Gyumri isn’t “a big outpost in a big war”. So Russia was merely trying to maintain the vision that it still cared about the security of Armenia and that they are opening their doors for Armenia to access the Customs Union. And what about the Customs Union, it’s a myth.
-So this was the reason of Sargsyan’s statement about joining the Customs/ Eurasian Economic Union, wasn’t it?
-Indeed, that is definitely Sargsyan’s failure because he had to agree with the rules of the game of Moscow, when the latter obviously leaned on the Armenian oligarchs – a part of Armenia’s elite. And I think that the currently intensifying situation in the Armenian media was the continuation of the same story.
And the escalation in the conflict zone has certain linkage with this story too because the parties are playing their roles: Azerbaijan has to increase the level of escalation (no matter who the president is there, he is going to do the same thing, another thing that maybe Ilham’s father- the former president could do this more skillfully). Armenia is also playing its role and is also using each border incident for propaganda. And in this regard, I don’t think anything terrible is taking place now. But I think the current relations of Russia and Armenia impose them to play the role of tension in the border because none of the sides will ever confess who attacked first.
-Do you think both sides are benefiting from the situation?
-I am not saying any of the sides is benefiting from this situation. I don’t like the word “benefiting” here. It isn’t benefiting either Armenia or Azerbaijan. It’s only a situation when everybody has to play his role. Baku is playing the role of the lost country, who can not live with the status quo unlike Armenia and the international community. Russia isn’t interested in the status quo very much, so in this regard Azerbaijan can partly rely on Russia.
-There is an opinion that Azerbaijan is trying to eliminate the status quo. Do you agree with that?
-Yes, that is what I meant. I wouldn’t put the whole responsibility of the tension on the border on Azerbaijan. Back in the day, General Anatoly Zinevich, who was then theChief of Staff of defense army of Karabakh, stated that it is impossible to answer who starts the war in Karabakh because neither of the sides would confess. When the snipers notice soldiers on the border then they start shooting instinctively.
–Nonetheless, it is Azerbaijan that first violates the ceasefire on the border by organizing diversions.
-You know, Azerbaijani media claims the same thing for Armenia. I don’t know which one of the sides is faking more. It is not even that important. The important thing is that these events are taking place. Azerbaijan will never withdraw its sniper shooters and Armenia will continue demanding that they do so. Azerbaijan is also trying to prove that it is also ready to resolve the conflict through military means.
-By the way, a few days ago, azerbaijanis captured an Armenian poor man, a villager from the border, an old man, who had mental issues and claimed that he was an Armenian armed spy.
-Yes, this is not the first incident. There have been such in the past.
-And so, by summarizing, can we say that if the Russian Foreign Ministry was more fair it should have denounced the actions of Azerbaijan?
-You know, the Foreign Ministry can’t be fair (he laughs – A.S.), it can only have interests and those are really twisted. That’s why Russian Foreign Ministry tries to react to this kind of incidents in a balanced way, while that “balance” fits to normal political assessments not every time.
Interviewed by Aram Sargsyan
