By choosing a new premier Serzh Sargsyan is choosing his successor
Interview with Russia’s first-degree state advisor, head of Rex agency, famous political scientist Modest Kolerov.
-Although the resignation of the Armenian premier Tigran Sargsyan was demanded but it was quite unexpected too. What is your opinion about that and what was the reason?
-I think the main reason of Tigran Sargsyan’s resignation should be sought inside Armenia, knowing that the social –economic policies of Armenia have essentially changed after Armenia agreed to join the CU. Tigran Sargsyan is well-known as an opponent to Armenia’s membership to the Union. However, he obeyed the decision of September 3 as a statesman. In order to be successful within the Customs Union it is necessary to get rid first of all of the internal opposition. If you want to get in the water make sure you swim, if not don’t go in there. Everything is clear.
This is the first option. Secondly, traditionally, in Armenia the premier of Armenia inherits the post of the president. Therefore, it is easy to assume that the new candidate of premier will be accepted as the successor of Serzh Sargsyan. But I am very serious about the speech of Tigran Sargsyan made in Brussels a few days ago, which includes Armenia’s urge to sign the EU association agreement, especially the political segment. Moreover, it was found out that prior to his visit T. Sargsyan knew he was going to resign and only stayed in government with the request of the president. Therefore, he had made that statement not because he thought so but because it was agreed with the incumbent government. And this statement has its factors proving that Armenia is not fully committed to the CU.
That is the reason why Sargsyan doesn’t want to move to Spain and be in charge of his business. After some time he will receive a position in the foreign affairs. In this regard, I believe that Tigran Sargsyan has a political future. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have had made these responsible statements.
-So according to you, Sargsyan will stay in Armenia and will be involved in politics and possibly take over a foreign service position. They also speak that he might be hired to work for the World Bank.
-I think that Sargsyan needs that and it’s important for him. The only thing that can make Sargsyan to go to Spain would be his procrastination. I also think that Sargsyan can easily take over the role of opposition, casting shade on such leaders as Raffi Hovhannisian, Vardan Oskanyan and even Levon Ter-Petrosyan.
-But after refusing the post of premier he thus loses any political backup.
-If Tigran Sargsyan receives Serzh Sargsyan’s consent and wishes to be involved in politics then he can easily unite the opposition and its electorate.
-How can Tigran Sargsyan attain success within the opposition if the whole civil society and activists are against him. And the reasons are various, such as the pension reform and his rating drastically fell after the offshore scandal.
-But don’t forget that during elections the RPA won more ballots than the opposition. Tigran Sargsyan was placed second on the RPA list.
-In Armenian political circles Tigran Sargsyan’s resignation is linked with the decision of Moscow because as you have mentioned he is a pro-European politician. Do you think the Kremlin has had any influence on this decision?
-I will sincerely tell you that I will not be very surprised that one day in Yerevan people start blaming Kremlin for the dawn and dusk. In fact, the reality is quite simple and explicit. The person doesn’t agree with the course of the country and doesn’t wish to be in the government that has adopted a contrasting foreign policy. What does Kremlin have to do here? If you remember even during the soviet era Tigran Sargsyan was in Komsomol and was doing a political career. At least this experienced politician knows what he is doing that why would Kremlin be involved. I think Armenia is just being sleek connected every single sneeze on the street with the Kremlin. I think it is just a tool to avoid responsibility.
-In your opinion what can Tigran Sargsyan’s resignation change in Armenia’s relations with the EU and CU?
-Nothing will be changed. When it is Armenia’s time to enter the Union there will be many issues to be discussed that will include numerous sociologists, economists and other specialists. The CU will serve a big forum for bureaucratic career for many post-soviet countries’ politicians.
-Today for Armenia one of the most important questions is who the new premier will be. Many names are mentioned – Vigen Sargsyan, Seyran Ohanyan, Robert Kocharyan, Karen Karapetyan… They also mention that Armenia is waiting for Moscow’s approval.
-I honestly don’t know because in this case it is the sole decision of Serzh Sargsyan and by picking a premier he is picking his successor. And no one can ever give him any references or urge him to appoint their person because that person is going to inherit his post. He will be the only person picking a premier.
-The political opposition of Armenia was planning to demand the resignation of the Premier on April 28. So this resignation basically failed their plans. What can we expect from the opposition under the current circumstances?
-During the recent years the Armenian civil society was able to formulate its political agenda and it pertains not only to the pension reform but other matters as well. If this civic discord doesn’t turn into an institute of a political struggle then it will remain blank and unfruitful. I think these people can bring up their demands to the government and the latter will have to consider their viewpoints.
By Gayane Khachatryan
