In the Face of Anticipations

International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook on April 12, which contains not so pleasing anticipations. In particular, IMF reduced anticipation for Armenia’s economic growth for 2016 by 0.3 percentage points—1.9%.

Note, in its report for 2015 IMF anticipated 2.2% GDP growth for Armenia in 2016.

For this year IMF anticipates 1.8% fall for Russia, and for Azerbaijan a deeper—3% fall. 2.7% decrease is anticipated in Belarus as well, and a standstill in Kazakhstan—0.1% growth. Only a higher growth temp is expected in case of Georgia —2.5% (although in its report for October it comprised 3%). Regarding Armenia’s economy IMF assessment coincides with the World Bank’s opinion. Note, WB issued its new report on economies of Europe and Central Asia on April 7, in which Armenia’s economic growth for 2016 was anticipated by 1.9%. In the former report 2.2% growth was anticipated for 2016.

The World Bank stated that Armenia’s economic growth temp will develop up to 2.8% the following year, and in 2018— to 2.9%.

For Georgia the WB anticipates 3% economic growth for this year (next year—4.5%), and for Azerbaijan—reduction by 1.9%.

Besides economic growth index, the WB anticipated growth in Armenia’s external state debt, and debt/GDP ratio will go up from 49.3% to 52.2%.

In brief, international structures aren’t optimistic regarding Armenia’s economic perspectives and yet worsen their anticipations. Moreover, we’re convinced that international structures will review their anticipations from economic growth in the forthcoming reports, to the direction of a decrease. This, basically, will be conditioned by recent tension of NK conflict and increasing risk of further military operations. It should be noted, although IMF report was issued on April 12, and that of the World Bank on April 7, these reports, in fact, have been prepared long ago, before the developments on Karabakh border. And as NK conflict is observed as a crucial factor, it’s not excluded that next time, 1% growth or a standstill may be anticipated for Armenia’s economy.

And what do we ourselves expect? The Government anticipates 2.2% economy growth for 2016. We’re sure that this year as well RA Government won’t give way and review 2.2% growth anticipation. For instance, Artsvik Minasyan, RA Minister of Economy, stated that tension of NK conflict won’t negatively impact on Armenia’s economic growth. He said, that 2.2% economic growth enshrined in the budget is still realistic after recent occurrences. Moreover, Artsvik Minasyan stressed, they anticipate more than 3% growth.

Note, almost all international structures anticipated economic decline for 2015, and, at best, zero growth. And our economy, contrary to anticipations, has recorded 3% growth (or was introduced so).

Now we came to a point that will surprise our readers. It’s the case, when we’re convinced, international structures will be mistaken. Completely. Economic growth will be higher than even 3%. No, we didn’t turn pro-governmental, neither we started casting doubt on specialized qualities of international structures.

Everything is very simple: recent developments showed, that the world doesn’t leave us other variant, than rapid development.

What they observe as a negative factor (conflict tension), we observe an extra stimuli, alarm for serious changes to be implemented.

What occurred throughout recent few days, was a real lesson to us. Starting from ordinary worker, to the highest state circle. We understood, that fight against corruption, rule of law, human rights protection, democracy and other values, are not just simple, nice words. Our fate and that of our country depend on them. Yes, it did cost us dear, but we realized that we need to have a powerful economy to have a powerful army, and for a powerful economy, we need to have a normal country and trust towards the state.

We just need to give life to this conscience, nothing else is needed for the time being. And be sure, that in a very short period, up to a month, the result will be visible.

It was a surprise to the many people (for us as well), that people in socially bad condition and discontent of the authorities, were so consolidated ahead the threat, the more surprise will be our unification for the development of the country’s economy. It’s as clear as the day, threat comes from our weakness.

This is not an issue of specialized dispute, but that of dignity and willpower. Maybe these words sound pathetic, maybe you’ll think we introduce the desired for reality, however, you’ll hardly deny, that we may provide such a surprise to the whole world. Everything depends on us.

By Babken Tunyan