Is Armenia Able to Prevent Implementation of the Russian Plan?
Interview with Styopa Safaryan, founder and head of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs (AIISA), political analyst.
–Mr. Safaryan, Ali Hasanov, National Advisor to the president of Azerbaijan and Head of Department on Socio-Political Issues, informed yesterday, that upon the initiative of Vladimir Putin, RF president, intensive negotiations will be launched on Karabakh conflict settlement in near future, which was denied by Vladimir Hakobyan, Press Secretary of RA president. However, this statement by Hasanov proves that a certain Russian-Azerbaijani process is on, from which Armenia is out, and which is taking place against the background of a few meters of victory by Azerbaijan. To your mind, what negotiations are ongoing between Russia and Azerbaijan, and how hazardous they might be for the Armenian side?
– Currently we are in a phase, which has been repeated since 2008. We faced likewise process in 2008—“Maindorf”. Of course, baselines are different, however, the process is the same from the perspective of Russia’s interests. Russia attempts to simply take Azerbaijan, as well as the NK settlement process under its total control. Once I stated that, in 2008 Russia not only orally but also in written form, made a promise to Azerbaijan, which was published yesterday by “Izvestia” newspaper (pro-Kremlin “Izvestia” introduced some details from Russian settlement program, pursuant which, some territories should be returned to Azerbaijan, peacekeepers should be deployed, and the status of Nagorno-Karabakh should be legalized: as the newspaper reports, provide opening of borders and re-establish economic ties, and after everything will calm down, launch a referendum on Karabakh’s status-A.M.) and for this, it first and foremost, needs to solely lead the settlement process and provide such an exit and intensified presence not only in negotiations, but directly in Artsakh.
Not accidentally, the news was released by the Azerbaijani side. I want to attach your attention to another circumstance as well: they speak of the forthcoming meeting under the umbrella of RF president, and RA presidential spokesman speaks of not having an accord within OSCE MG. Accordingly, Armenia seems to hint, that it anticipates development of negotiations within OSCE, and, probably, this is a precise and right approach by Armenia.
The issue is not on whether Azerbaijani positions are strong or no, I don’t agree at all. In the end, Aliyev proved that it’s unable to take even a village within 24 hours, with such big losses it’s able to take only a hill within 24 hours. Thus, we can’t say that Azerbaijan’s positions in negotiations have strengthened, otherwise, believe me, he wouldn’t so easily agree on negotiations and wouldn’t have returned to the negotiation table with his head down. He was simply convinced that it’s unable to take it militarily, accordingly, he’d nothing to do but agreeing on Russia’s patronage and asking for Putin’ s mercy in supporting negotiations and returning the territories. Not to allow this plan to be implemented, the Armenian side should insist on negotiations within OSCE MG, however, no agreement has been reached in this regard. As per other issues, probably, some points may be discussed with Azerbaijan, if the latter completely withdraws from the Line of Contact, suspends firing and sits at the negotiation table with Nagorno-Karabakh. If Russia is eager to do that, it should provide participation of official Stepenakert as well.
–Opinions have been circulated recently and there is an impression, that OSCE MG Western Co-chairs seem to get along with Russia’s active mediation, evidence of which is their press conference in Yerevan as well, during which all main messages were expressed by Igor Popov, who has never been active in the settlement process while co-chairing. What’s going on in OSCE MG? What will Moscow initiate? And to which extent may Armenia rely on its Western allies?
–It’s worth properly understanding the existent situation in Minsk Group. Both in 2008 and presently, MG realizes that Russia has the greatest impact on the conflicting parties, and if Russia will be able to bring to life Madrid Principles, despite its consecutiveness and way, probably, MG and the West won’t be against. We need to clearly understand it. However, another issue is existent here—Russia isn’t interested in the settlement at all, like it’s enshrined in the very Madrid document. Russia’s concern was establishment of direct control over Karabakh, as well as distribution of military contingent. In this very issue MG won’t allow implementation of the Russian plan.
– Mr. Safaryan, if Armenia is for negotiations led by OSCE MG format, what chance does it have to deny Russian proposal, if organization on meeting is launched?
– Armenia’s authorities aren’t in a situation to be able to withdraw from that initiative. Accordingly, they will participate, however, formally. As I mentioned, currently we’re in Maindorf phase and we should have gained lessons from that. Presently, we simply don’t have the right to be mistaken.
By Araks Martirosyan
