How Realistic is Deploying a Peacekeeping Mission in Karabakh?
After the four-day war unleashed on NK conflict zone, fermentations around the unsettled conflict are still in process. It’s not news for Armenian experts, as at this stage, like in 2008, Russian scenarios of Karabakh issue settlement have been circulated, which in 2008 were named “Medvedev plan,” and currently—“Lavrov plan” or “Lavrov document.”
It’s noteworthy, that Lavrov himself has repeatedly denied existence of such a document. This was also denied by Igor Popov, OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair (Russia), stating no Russian plans are available at the negotiation table, moreover, he added, “There are proposals by the Co-chairs, which have been discussed throughout recent years in this or that form. A few variants are available, however, they’re based on three principles and six elements of the conflict settlement, which have repeatedly been stated by the Co-chairs. Let me remind about these principles: the right to self-determination, exclusion of the use of force, territorial integrity, and most important among the six basic elements are the return of the territories and the status settlement of NKR. I repeat once again the question of the status of Karabakh and the return of the territories. These are complete, are not subordinate to one another. This has been discussed, the so-called “Lavrov document”. In addition to these two principles, there is also the question of the return of the refugees, issue of the status and the width of corridor, connecting Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, where, naturally, there must be peacekeeping activities. It is intended that the peacekeepers will be deployed in the final stage of the settlement, when the agreement on the peaceful settlement of the conflict is signed.”
However, Russian MFA, prior to the meeting with his counterparts of Azerbaijan and Iran in Baku 7 April 2016, gave a large interview to Russian TASS media agency and stressed, “Besides the efforts exerted by OSCE MG Co-chairs, Russia appears with personal initiatives as well. I won’t detail, but a few variants are available, which remain on the negotiation table, we have discussed that issue with Aliyev. We’ll continue our efforts.” And against this background the Kremlin circles of Russian media outlets, like against the background of another tension in NK last year, “Kommersant” and a range of other newspapers—“Izvestia” and some pro-Azerbaijani experts are circulating new articles on Russian proposals. In particular, Russian “Izvestia” wrote recently that by Putin’s mediation the Armenian side will agree on deploying a Russian peacekeeping mission in Karabakh.
All this won’t be so hazardous, if not Russia-Azerbaijan active processes in this direction, vivid proof of which is observation by Ali Hasanov, National Adviser to the President of Azerbaijan and Head of Department on Social Political Issues, on the fact that upon the initiative of Vladimir Putin, RF president, in near future intensive negotiations will be launched for NK conflict settlement. Moreover, throughout the days of the April war at the meeting of the Security Council convened by Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijani president, even stated that Russian proposals are available, and Azerbaijan isn’t against them, then at Lavrov-Aliyev meeting in Baku they have also been touched upon and it was stated that the parties are close to reaching accord in that issue, without opening the brackets.
There is another curious circumstance, that replying to the same question, as Ali Hasanov did, Vladimir Hakobyan, RA presidential press secretary, denied that a meeting will be held under OSCE MG patronage, without mentioning the meeting to be organized by Putin, which was stressed by Hasanov. To all probabilities, official Yerevan, realizing danger of those plans, attempts to move the process under the umbrella of OSCE MG. As it’s observed, Western mediators are also anxious: upon the initiative of the US, Grigory Karasin, RF Deputy MFA, and John Teft, U.S. Ambassador to Russia, have met and discussed security issues in the South Caucasus, including the occurrences in Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, OSCE MG Co-chairs were in Berlin yesterday and introduced the report on NK conflict.
Styopa Safaryan, founder and head of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs, stated that shift of the process under the umbrella of OSCE MG by Armenia was a right approach. In his conviction, the West, by recognizing Russia’s influence over Armenia and Azerbaijan, agrees on Russia’s active mediation, but not that of deploying a peacekeeping mission. However, Armenian expert community is almost sure, that Russia will take pro-Azerbaijani solutions, which may overturn Armenia, by the support of Nagorno-Karabakh and the West. And against the background of these developments, Sergey Lavrov, RF MFA, will pay an official visit to Yerevan this evening, major topic of the visit of whose, as Maria Zakharova, press secretary of the Minister, informed, will be NK conflict settlement process and activation of negotiations in MG format.
However, Russian media outlets, in particular, “Kommersant” and “Nezavisimoya gazeta” report, that Lavrov is bringing Russian settlement project to Yerevan. Alexey Malashenko, member of the Scientific Council of the Moscow Carnegie Center, Chairman of the Religion, Society and Security Program, in an interview with “168 Hours” speaking of Russian proposals, said that, formulation or deal on the “agreement of a peacekeeping mission for the territories,” in fact, seems realistic. According to him, it may be beneficial both for Azerbaijan and Russia. However, in case of attempts on implementation of the scenario, contradictions by Armenia and the West are not excluded.
“I once mentioned, that I don’t imagine implementation of deploying a peacekeeping mission, when Russia implements peacekeeping mission in various formats, both in Syria , Ukraine and in Georgia in 2008, under confrontation with the West, and currently in Karabakh? Maybe Azerbaijan will agree on deploying for the territories. How about Turkey in this regard? Russia-Turkey confrontation currently is in the phase it was last autumn, however, tension hasn’t been eliminated, and it’s hard to say, whether Turkey will support Azerbaijan in this issue, realizing that a Russian contingent is available both on Armenia-Turkey border and in Karabakh, although, as much as I understand, Azerbaijani officials assuredly repeat that, they agree on Russian offers, however, it seems rather ambitious and hazardous,” Malashenko said, adding that Russia comprehends rather well that Turkey had a role in Azerbaijan’s military audacity, thus it’ll try to advance in other way and reach other agreements with the sides. In Malashenko’s opinion, Russia’s condition is not that easy, and the latter faces a problem to restore its mediation mission, CSTO authority, and this is possible by cooperation with the West and proposing mutually acceptable solutions to Azerbaijan and Armenia.
In his words, in this case steps independent from the West won’t help Russia, and will just complicate the situation. Thus, according to Malashenko, it’s not realistic speaking of deploying a peacekeeping mission in the context of Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan. In his opinion, Russia attempts to strengthen the reached ceasefire, acting together with MG.
Konstantin Zatulin, first deputy chairman of the committee of the State Duma for the CIS and relations with Russian nationals abroad, politician, told “168 Hours” that he constantly has meetings with Russia’s authorities on NK issue, and he considered the discussed scenario not realistic. Then he mentioned his perception of the settlement. Zatulin said, that parties clearly understand that independence will be completely logical and legal, instead of return of territories, however, both in Armenia and Azerbaijan political will lacks, as they bother that any attempt of yield will be negatively perceived by a part of the society, both in Armenia and in Azerbaijan.
“I clearly understand that the issue is completely unacceptable for Azerbaijan, political figures may also be found in Armenia, who claim, that territories shouldn’t be redeemed. These are extremist opinions, which are difficult to overcome, however, it would be easy to cope with them, if mediators, first and foremost, the USA and Russia will tightly agree on this issue and draw a line to make authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan to come to such an agreement. This is the only variant of speedy settlement, when each side in Baku and Yerevan may say they wanted something different, but they were made to, and they have nothing to do for the time being,” Zatulin said.
By Araks Martisoryan
