“Moscow Could Find Itself in a Complicated Situation in Karabakh”
“I agree, war in Karabakh may resume at any moment,” Pavel Felgenhauer, Russian military analyst, told “168 Hours,” touching upon explosive situation on Karabakh zone, and against its background Sergey Lavrov’s, RF MFA, visit to Yerevan, following the interview of Serzh Sargsyan, RA president, to Bloomberg.
Note, Lavrov stated in Yerevan, that NK conflict doesn’t have a military settlement, and should be settled by political-diplomatic ways only. And, according to him, implementation and maintenance of ceasefire agreement reached in the period of 1994-19995 is a priority. According to the Russian MFA, they are termless, accordingly, they should be followed.
“For the time being, by respecting ceasefire agreements, everything should be done to put mutual trust, security provision and mechanisms of precedent investigation on a practical ground, agreed between presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan by Russia’s mediation in 2011, and towards which OSCE MG has worked,” Lavrov said. He also added that by Russia’s mediation steps have been worked out throughout recent years—trust, security means.
In his turn, Serzh Sargsyan, RA president, in an interview with Bloomberg, stated that war in Nagorno-Karabakh may resume at any moment, and that perspectives for conflict settlement aren’t big. Sargsyan said, that it’s “unreasonable” for Armenia to return to peace talks with Azerbaijan over the disputed territory without security guarantees because “the situation is entirely different now,” he said. “On the one hand, we’d be talking somewhere while, on the other, military officials would be engaging in war here to try to settle the conflict,” he said. While the chief of the defense staff in Moscow mediated the cease-fire talks, there’s no place for Russian peacekeepers in the conflict zone to separate the two sides, Sargsyan said. While talk of Russian forces being deployed “wasn’t entirely without grounds” in previous peace negotiations, “I don’t see any such opportunity” now, he said. “If there are no negotiations, how can Russian forces appear in Karabakh or between Azeri and Karabakh forces?” Sargsyan said. Russia’s pursuing a “balanced policy” between Armenia and Azerbaijan while seeking to avert “large-scale military conflict,” Sargsyan said.
Pavel Felgenhauer mentioned, that after the four-day April war threat for wide-scale military operations on NK conflict zone is still existent, as political issues of the conflict aren’t settled, the sides aren’t ready for a compromise, a range of domestic policy issues are available in the conflicting states, the West-Russia tension is existent as well, although it calmed down after the visit of J.Kerry to Moscow. According to him, Moscow—one of the active mediators of the conflict—pursues the goal to soothe the increased threat, as for the time being, Russia needs neither such tension, nor war in the Caucasus.
“I disagree with opinions circulating in Armenia, that Moscow instigated it. Yes, Moscow sold armaments, demand for which was available. Moscow kept the balance between the sides. It’s also clear, if there is demand for weaponry, without maintenance of that influence, armaments would have been available and used on this conflict zone. I also have impression that Moscow and the West currently act in reconciliation, as Sergey Lavrov in his speech repeatedly made reference to follow-ups of Germany as OSCE Co-chair, which was rather crucial. In this case, I consider, serious drop in price for oil, and domestic policy developments in Armenia had their role. Moscow has a problem to soothe war threat, and I consider, at this stage, they fail, judging from Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan and statements made during it,” P.Felgenhauer said.
According to the latter, Moscow attempts to bring Kazan document to the negotiation table again, which was failed by Azerbaijan through its dozens of proposals. In his opinion, an attempt will be made to conform it with the accord of 1994-1995, as basically, these accords touch upon all crucial components of the conflict.
“Presently, conflicting parties need to communicate, Russia attempts to provide it. There was information that the Russian party is organizing a presidential meeting, however, seemingly, it’s not the proper time speaking of it, as the Armenian side attempts to extort concessions from the attacking side and exert pressure over it. In any case, I think, for the time being, threat for military actions is existent, as it’s failed to bring the sides to the negotiation table, as Azerbaijan’s sudden attack, as claimed by the Armenian side, struck a blow to the negotiations, changing state of affairs. Armenia has taken a tough disposition, seemingly, Azerbaijan as well, and war isn’t beneficial for Moscow, and the latter faces a complicated situation,” Felgenhauer said.
Touching upon the interview of Serzh Sargsyan, RA president, the Russian analyst said, in fact, schemes for deploying a Russian peacekeeping mission in Karabakh haven’t been discussed at the negotiations, even in terms of trilateral negotiations. “If Serzh Sargsyan states that Russian forces can’t appear in Karabakh, it means such a proposal hasn’t been made, or even if made, it was rejected by the sides or will be rejected, although such proposals have been touched upon throughout all the history of the conflict. However, currently, as I managed to understand from the interview, the topic of peacekeepers may be discussed only after the accord is concluded. Thus, Moscow has had this desire throughout these years, but due to Azerbaijani resistance it wasn’t recorded in the 1990s, and presently, there is no such a proposal,”
By Araks Martirosyan
