“Moscow Reluctantly Accepted Disposition by Yerevan”
After the four-day war early this April in Nagorno-Karabakh, officials of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh obviously toughened their disposition in response to Azerbaijan’s unleashed military operations in NK conflict settlement process, as well as unaddressed statements by the international community. Under this new condition, on process perspectives we talked to Vadim Dubnov, Russian analyst.
Mr. Dubnov, Serzh Sargsyan, RA president, in the interview to Bloomberg stated that war in Karabakh may resume at any moment, and it’s “unreasonable” for Armenia to return to peace talks with Azerbaijan over the disputed territory without security guarantees because “the situation is entirely different now.” And Levon Mnatsakanyan, NKR MoD, general-lieutenant, told Washington Post if the war resumes, the Armenian side will not only repel them but will advance. Obviously, the Armenian side toughened its disposition. What may new accentuations of Armenia’s strategy lead to?
Yes, the Armenian side has changed its strategy a little. Previously its disposition was exclusively formal, as for Armenia the chief purpose was maintenance of the status quo, however, this situation was leading before April. I consider, that purpose has remained unchanged, but the strategy of resolutions to reach that purpose has changed: if formerly, that strategy was only official, moreover, Azerbaijan was appearing with more active disposition, purpose of which was changing the status quo, currently Armenia is changing its approach, as that formal strategy was dooming it to external pressure, first and foremost, by Azerbaijan, which was creating a bothering background in Karabakh, making all the sides exert power over Yerevan.
I consider, firstly, Armenia attempts come up from that pressure. Secondly, domestic policy background in Armenia has radically changed, and internal pressures also made the president to take more active disposition. I’m not a military analyst, I don’t understand which side will make the other withdraw; both sides promise that. I’m suspicious about the fact, that any of the sides will quickly reach some settlement, it’s impossible. Thus, they are just propagandistic statements by both sides.
In my opinion, rather tense and worrying situation will be recorded in the conflict zone. This means, the sides will be on the threshold of clashes. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that the border won’t to be traversed, as tensions seem rather possible. I don’t think, that a wide-scale war will be unleashed, as it’s not in line with plans of both, war will be tragic for the sides, as well as interested parties and mediators. Unfortunately, the situation is getting out of control, doesn’t fit in formal political logic, and both the sides and all mediators realize it, thus, predicting out of logic, probably, there is reality as well, and it’s the following: the sides don’t exclude local wide-scale actions, that’s why they’re getting ready for it. Let’s hope, all this won’t turn into war, and any party from Moscow, Washington or Paris will manage to agree them.
“Kommersant” wrote, that due to the Armenian side negotiations of NK conflict settlement, initiated by Moscow, are being postponed, Moscow and Baku stated on this, although it was already clear during the visit of Sergey Lavrov, RF MFA, to Yerevan, when he met RA president. In your opinion, how does the Kremlin perceive this disposition by the Armenian side on account of the fact, that the Armenian side, basically, rejected Russian agenda, by dictating its own. Some experts conditioned recent outbreak by this very circumstance. What may be expected from Russia under this situation?
It’s difficult to say how the Kremlin perceives this. If initially Moscow was seriously going to offer Yerevan and Baku the Kazan variant of settlement, then these illusions, have been rather quickly neutralized, I guess. It’s not important as a result of which side they have been neutralized—by Azerbaijan or Armenia? I consider, in this regard, both sides are united and consolidated, as Kazan document is impossible to discuss neither in Yerevan, nor in Baku. To my mind, Moscow understood this. Another crucial circumstance, which I’d like to touch upon, is that the Armenian side has found some words to convince Moscow, that the least should be expected to develop serious discussions, and currently, suspension of clashed may be touched upon or reduction of their volumes, i.e. under these conditions the variant of negotiations cannot even be touched upon. I think, Moscow reluctantly perceived, but understood this.
One of the most discussed questions is whether cooperation between Paris, Moscow and Washington is available. On April 25 RA president had a phone conversation with John Kerry, the same day he accepted Harlem De°sir, Minister of State for European affairs, and the following day Edward Nalbandyan had a phone conversation with Sergey Lavrov, RF MFA, and three of them seem to exhort the same to the sides. Is this coincidence or cooperation?
I consider, there is cooperation, moreover, to my mind, Karabakh conflict, may become the last topic, where Moscow, Washington and Paris may have a constructive and systemized dialogue. I didn’t believe this scenario from the very start, and that all this “was plotted by Russia to deploy a peacekeeping mission in Karabakh,” as there are formal restrictions to do that, as, if I’m not mistaken, there are resolutions by Budapest summit, pursuant which, neither mediator can have more than 30% peacekeeping mission in the conflict zone.
Azerbaijani disposition is existent as well, and I don’t think, despite the myths, that Azerbaijan intends to join the EEU, it will withdraw its dispositions regarding it. Thus, to my assessment, these scenarios are imaginary and sensitive, although I’d say, that Moscow has paved a way for that issue—to seek for possibility, and I’m sure, it’s attempted to deploy a peacekeeping mission, which was confirmed by Serzh Sargsyan. However, I’m suspicious of its being actual nowadays.
I see another threat—by the co-chair level, Minsk Group has sobered both sides, and that disappointment, may be shaped officially. I’m afraid authoritative officials with wider liabilities should start dealing with the issue, maybe separately, which I consider more probable.
By Araks Martirosyan
