The Road Ahead: Bad, Worse or Catastrophic?

Let us start with some troubling questions:
Is there a grave risk of another war by accident or design?
Is it likely to occur later or sooner,
particularly if much cooler heads do not emerge?
Will the future weaponry be far swifter and more deadly?
How can we stop an arms race spiral?
What malevolent role does Turkey play in fomenting unrest in the South Caucasus?
Can the Azerbaijani dictator’s territorial ambitions be curbed by international diplomacy?
If not, what deterrence does Armenia possess?
Can Armenia adequately defend itself militarily at the current time?
What about in the near future?
If not, must it rely on and even defer to Moscow’s wishes?
What does Moscow ultimately want in the region?
What will the Kremlin settle for?
What did Turkey and Russia negotiate in private,
both before the Karabakh war and after?
Is Russia ultimately a reliable ally?
Where was the help from the Western democracies during Armenia’s urgent hour of need?
Can Iran or China make a difference in the overall geopolitical calculus?
Sitting from a safe distance afar,
has the Diaspora’s nationalist rhetoric posed a problem for international negotiations?
What do the people of Karabakh ultimately want?
Is it the same today as it was in 1988 during the break-up of the Soviet Union?
If Karabakh’s citizens cannot have full national self-determination,
what is their second realistic choice?
Would they be safer opting to be a part of Russia?
In this critical historic moment,
would even Armenia be safer being more closely aligned with Russia?
But at what cost?
How critical is the long-term depopulation of Armenia?
How many Armenians will leave Yerevan when the international borders reopen?
What is the necessary population mass for a nation-state to survive?
Can a small state navigate alone in a dangerous world?
Are the Diaspora’s prospects better than those for an independent sovereign Armenia?
What is metropolitan Yerevan’s future in a fractured region?
As I search for the pivotal road ahead,
I am fearful.
Yet, I am still with hope.
But hope is not a plan.

Alan Whitehorn

June 1, 2021

Alan Whitehorn is an Armenian Canadian poet and professor emeritus of political science.