Deterrence

Armenia is confronted by a strategic conundrum.

Deterrence can occur when a country has dangerous weapons

and others know it would use them, if need be.

Deterrence can also arise when others are uncertain,

but believe a country might have substantial key weaponry

available for use.

Deterrence can even take place

when a state has inadequate major equipment,

but is a nation so desperate

that it is willing to employ anything of potential military value.

If, however, a country has insufficient strategic resources,

it needs to seek reliable deterrence elsewhere,

presumably provided by a trusted military ally.

Without sufficient deterrence on your side of the ledger,

a country will need to hope for the good will of a rival state.

If that regime is a brutal dictatorship,

you had best prepare for the worst.

Alan Whitehorn

June 6 – 30, 2021

Alan Whitehorn is an Armenian Canadian poet and professor emeritus of political science who participates in defence analysis workshops.