What Message will Carry Lavrov from Yerevan?
Sergey Lavrov, Russian MFA, is visiting Yerevan today. This has been announced on the hot days of April war, during his visit paid to Baku. It was the visit organized in a few hours, so that the visit of Dmitri Medvedev, RF Prime Minister, to Yerevan wasn’t regarded as a parity violation between its “strategic ally” and a state, which Russia calls a “strategic partner” and sells armaments, as Russian officials state, upon “strategic accord.”
Of course, Medvedev left for Baku from Yerevan, by that restoring not only parity, but also trust of the Azerbaijanis that they have a strategic partner like Russia. Medvedev left for Baku to pass greetings of Vladimir Putin and to invite him to Moscow, as well as to accept Aliyev’s thanks on Russia’s role in implementation of ceasefire agreement in the April war, to prevent counterattack on the Armenian side. Prior to that, Lavrov had already stated in Baku that “almost all components of NK conflict settlement accord are on the table.”
“The point is not even how to arrange those components, but in their formulations, we are too close to the conflict settlement,” Lavrov said in Baku. And rather “accidentally”, after Lavrov’s statement, the Azerbaijani side spoke of Russian—“Lavrov” plan of Karabakh conflict settlement, and again “accidentally” Russian pro-authority press actively reported on Putin’s new role in the conflict settlement, introducing the substance of the Russian plan.
“Izvestia” newspaper reported on it the day before, which was naturally followed by “Kommersant”, making reference to its “diplomatic sources.” Essence of that plan is that the Armenian side retreats a few liberated regions to Azerbaijan (“Kommersant”, for instance, calls them “Azerbaijani regions occupied by Armenia”), Azerbaijani refugees return to their former settlements, and after everything will “calm down”, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is being decided. And “calm down”, or the same “not allowing to calm down” are provided by the peacekeeping mission, and Russian press is “modestly” silent on its structure, naturally, meaning the very Russian peacekeepers.
Russian media outlets are silent on why Russia intends to settle a conflict, unsettlement of which is a crucial component of Russia-led foreign policy. They are silent that its main purpose is Azerbaijan’s membership to EEU. Russian media outlets are silent that for that membership the Russian side was obliged to exert pressure over Armenia to redeem those territories to Azerbaijan.
And what is more, they are silent, that Lavrov is visiting Yerevan today to get the reflection of Armenia’s authorities regarding it.
What that reflection will be like? Is not so essential, whether they will explain to Lavrov in a friendly manner, that it’s unacceptable for the Armenian side, or will hint by citing the well-known statement addressed to Lavrov in Baku.
The crucial point is that Lavrov departed from Yerevan with the message of Armenia’s authorities, that there is a borderline, beyond which the one offering, and moreover, exerting something to the Armenian side, unwittingly becomes an enemy with all its implications.
It’ll be great if they make it clear for Lavrov. Otherwise, they’ll be obliged to explain to the Armenian society why and how they couldn’t help agreeing on Russia’s anti-Armenian plan. Otherwise, the Armenian society will itself find the way to make it clear. And not only for Lavrov.
