“Probability of Karabah Conflict Outbreak is Less now, than Prior to the April War”

Interview with Konstantin Zatulin, member of the Public Chamber of Russia, director of Institute of the CIS Countries (ICC).

Mr. Zatulin after the letter of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president of Turkey, signs of active process of Russia-Turkey settlement are being noticed, although on official level the Russian side doesn’t hurry to immediately open all the doors before Turkey, as Dmitri Medvedev, RF Prime Minister, said the day before. However, after the existent crisis will settlement be recorded and on which level will Russia-Turkey relations be restored?

I’d like to stress, that each of the sides perceived and analyzed the stage of sharpening of relations in its own way. Formally or officially they sharpened, when Russian plane was downed in the air space of Syria. I particularly consider that reasons for sharpening have deeper roots. It’s noteworthy that Turkey’s authorities rather vividly responded to RF president Vladimir Putin’s participation in the ceremonies of commemoration of the centennial of the Armenian Genocide, to his speech in Tsitsernakaberd.

Demonstrative actions followed this against Russia’s meeting with Crimean Tatars, new agreements and etc. I’m sure the sides drew their conclusions after the occurrences. If we speak of the level of meetings, then undoubtedly, more cautiousness and less trust will be observed in Russia-Turkey relations, than prior to this sharpening. It’s also noteworthy, that there is desire to eliminate existent tension in relations, however, I’m personally convinced that Turkey continues pretending for restoration of the Ottoman Empire, which means clashes between Turkey and Russia are inevitable.

Some experts express concerns that Turkey and Russia will unite against Western organizations, including OSCE, which may have negative implications on NK conflict as well. In your opinion, how will this new process be reflected on the situation on NK conflict zone, particularly after the April war?

I think this process isn’t going to have a direct reference to NK conflict. It wasn’t a reason for Russia-Turkey sharpening. Although grounded opinions are being circulated that initiating of military operations wasn’t without Turkey’s support. Frankly speaking, I supposed that Russia-Turkey side will make Azerbaijan act more consistently and calmly. However, we observed that Azerbaijani adventure was recorded in Karabakh at this very stage. Out of this, it may be supposed that currently Azerbaijan shouldn’t initiate some operations. There is more serious ground for Azerbaijan’s “calmness”—tough reflection of all the participants of OSCE MG on means chosen by Azerbaijan. Some of them were public, like the USA, and some, like Russia, non-publicly, which intends to maintain its relations both with Armenia and Azerbaijan, however, obviously the international community is against military adventures and conflict tension. This means, if steps are initiated by Turkey to that end, they’ll have equal response by the international community.

What’s your assessment to negotiation process of NK conflict peaceful settlement, in particular, results of presidential meetings in Vienna and in St. Petersburg?

Another attempt is made to boost peaceful settlement of the conflict, following hot traces of the developments, thus replying to the question whether it’s possible to record a positive outcome through means, like resumption of military operations. In my opinion, it’s less probable, and the fact that today Azerbaijan is stating during the meetings that it’s loyal to the settlement process, speaks of the fact, that by its strategy, if it may be called one, it failed to reach its purpose. Resumption of military operations didn’t provide dividends to Azerbaijan but the benefit, which it used inside the country to divert public attention from other existent problems.

I think they hope in Azerbaijan that together with heated moods in Armenia, which will require revenge, will be based on feelings. I know that such talks are being circulated in Karabakh and in Armenia, that it’ll be a stupid behavior, as realistically assessing the results, we see, that militarily Azerbaijan gained nothing, and on diplomatic platform it gained criticism. Out of this it’s difficult for me to make a final anticipation on what this settlement stage will give, as I don’t see that approaches of the side have become closer, such a phenomenon lacks.

Mr. Zatulin, it’s being much discussed how productive is Russia-USA cooperation within OSCE MG on account of Russia-USA confrontation and talks on separate Russian plans? In this regard, some experts claimed that Vienna agenda was Western, and that of St. Petersburg—a Russian one. What’s going on between the mediators?

I think in NK conflict our positions are the closest, than in any other issue. There are issues, which divide us, like the conflict in Ukraine. There are issues, which are difficult to settle like development inside and around Syria, the Middle East, however, as for Karabakh, there is desire not to allow resumption of military operations and a development of the process, that would allow the sides to agree on some accord. I have already touched upon start of such agreements, I insist them, and I think, the formula of NK conflict settlement is in it, however, unfortunately, neither this, nor that side, at large, isn’t ready to take steps towards the settlement: it refers return of regions around NK for NK independence. This is the formula, all other plans are circulating around this, and it’s not essential by which order and ground.

Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, claims that wider sovereignty will be provided to Karabakh on the example of Nakhchivan. What settlement it may be touched upon under these conditions?

It’s not a working disposition, it’s clear that this proposal won’t be passed, all MG member countries perfectly realize it.

However, although negotiations are ongoing, they, basically are at a deadlock, and there are talks on the possibility of new military operations.

Under any conflict certain possibility of resumption of such operations is existent, however, I consider, that currently that possibility is even less, than prior to the outbreak of war. In any case, it’s less probable that they’d like to repeat their attempt in near future. And Armenia continues to get armed, and it has the right.

By Araks Martirosyan