Trump will be grateful to his predecessors for NK: Vadim Dubnov
Billionaire Donald Trump, member of Republican Party, who has won the U.S. presidential elections, appeared with contradicting statements during his campaign regarding domestic and foreign policies of the USA. Trump, who used to consider that the USA shouldn’t support Ukraine in conflict with Russia, recently insisted that the USA should support Ukraine, as Russia is becoming a confrontation country. Trump has repeatedly reflected to relations with Russia, assuring that in case of victory those relations will be raised. The newly elected president also considers that Washington pays a really high price for NATO, which will be reduced during his presidency, and which seems promising to Russian political figures from the perspective of Russia-USA forthcoming relations. 168.am interviewed Vadim Dubnov, Russian diplomat, political analyst at “Echo of the Caucasus” (Prague), on how trustworthy these statements are.
Mr. Dubnov after Trump’s victory what may be anticipated in Russia-USA relations, on account of Trump’s election program, pursuant which settlement of relations with Russia was planned. In your opinion, to which extent will Trump succeed to implement his plans on account of systemization of existent issues between Russia and the USA, as well as depth of discordances?
Frankly speaking, I don’t consider that anything will considerably change on this platform, most probably, Trump will attempt to solve those relations e.g. in Syria, however, I consider, he underestimates importance of the Syrian topic for Moscow. All hotbeds of confrontation with the USA are interrelated and it’s impossible to settle relations in one place and continue confrontation in the other. This is a complete system for Moscow, system confrontation with the West, the USA, a system of self-assertion, part of which is anti-American position. Thus, I don’t consider that Moscow needs all this. Russia would like mitigation of confrontation only for lifting sanctions from it.
I don’t consider that it’s possible to easily solve these issues, as Trump states. Thus, I don’t anticipate big changes, moreover, in this case, when Trump introduces the Republican Party, Moscow’s relations with which have been traditionally complicated, than with the Democratic Party. Practice shows that Moscow fails to have good relations with Republicans.
What policy should be anticipated from the USA in the South Caucasus, from Trump’s administration?
I didn’t observe serious policy in the South Caucasus from former administrations, I don’t consider that it holds a top position in the priority list of the Americans. This region is important for Russia, and from this perspective, as a secondary factor, the Americans will attempt to reflect to the developments in the South Caucasus. I consider, like recent statements by the U.S. on NK conflict, the process will continue. I believe, Trump will be grateful to his predecessors, that the U.S. defined such participation in NK conflict, easing his further life. This is a formula, which is beneficial to everyone, and I don’t consider that Trump’s office will attempt to urge conflict settlement, or generate some ideas. It’s not interesting to him.
On account of Trump’s statements on Ukraine, there are opinions that Trump’s administration will withdraw from the South Caucasus, recognizing it exclusively a zone of Russian strategic interests. How realistic likewise developments are?
I don’t believe in this scenario. If we discuss his pre-election statements and draw conclusions, it’ll be wrong, as in the position of the president he will manifest himself as a more systemic political figure. His former statements were proper at that period, and currently I’m deeply concerned that they’ll attempt to explain that Trump meant something else. I don’t consider that position of the USA will radically change towards Ukraine, as it’s also Russia-USA systemic confrontation component, and it may be conditioned by concession in Syria, it was always existent. I don’t consider, that during Trump that policy will change basically or its bets will change essentially.
By Araks Martirosyan
