To a safe Armenia
“Live where you can make a living.” This expression is mostly ascribed to Armenians. But this trait is characteristic to all the nations of the world regardless of their gender, race and religious belief. This phenomenon is called a labor migration.
It means that that people tend to move and live in a place where it’s easier to find a job or where the working conditions are better. This phenomenon is more common now when the technologies are developed and integration processes are taking place. The volume of migration shows a more serious index than the official data of economic growth. People abandon the places where they don’t make money.
They move to places where it’s easier to make a living. And the labor market speaks of the economy. When the economy grows the workplaces also increase. But let’s return to us – Armenians. This trend also exists in our country. And the proof of that can also be found in the official statistics. Of course, it’s hard to figure which of the ones, who leave the country go to actually seek work abroad. But it’s possible to build an approximate picture.
We drew the picture 1 based on the data of the migration service and official statistics. In table 1 we can see the rates of economic development of Armenia and the rates of migration for 2000-2012. The negative ratio of economic development and migration during the mentioned period amounted to 57,5 thousand and 60 thousand people. It means that the number of the people who left is higher than the number of the ones who live for good. Then we underwent the period of dual-digit growth. Then we had the opposite picture when the migration rates increased (in 2002 – 2719 people, in 2003 – 10,061 people). Then starting from 2004, the ratio became positive.
People were returning more than leaving for good. For example, in 2006 the positive ratio of migration was 21,756 thousand. Then we had slight outflow in 2007. Starting from 2008, the volumes of migration grew and during the past three years the number of migrators rose by 40 thousand people.
During 2008-2012, according to official data the number was 180 thousand. It is hard to tell what where the actual reasons of such an outflow because the negative ratio is gradually increasing. And the working migrants call their families and friends to the countries they work in. In a demographic aspect this is a serious threat. This statistics comes to speak of the fact that it’s necessary to create favorable conditions to keep the citizen in his/her own country – normal economy, competition, dynamic and fair working market, etc. Our government, however, is trying to solve the matter from the opposite aspect. For example, they are trying to urge Russia to cease their “Compatriots” project, as a result of which an essential number of Armenians are migrating, mostly young people. As the time shows it doesn’t give any results.
What is the current situation and what motives can there be perceived having taken into account the migration situation for January-February 2013. Unfortunately, the picture is more than sad. According to the data of the national statistics service during January-February of this year over 272,918 people have left Armenia and only 250, 918 returned.
The negative ratio amounted to 22,122 people. This is a record in a bad way. Last year for the same period this ratio amounted to 14,394 and in 2011 the number was 12,003. Let’s also mention that since 2000 the highest number of migration for January-February was registered in 2008 with 16,521 migrants (see picture 2). And this already gives are reasons for very sad conclusions.
This means that the people trust the authorities less despite the 7,2% economic growth record of the government. People not only don’t believe in these numbers but they refuse to believe in the vision of a safe Armenia. Instead, they prefer to live somewhere where they’d feel more of less safe than in Armenia. And it’s hard to tell whether the government is concerned about this or not.
During the campaign period there were accusations by the government that the migrators are guilty for leaving their homes and not the government. And the only thing that concerns the government – the number of constituents is the opposite of the rates of migration. The more people migrate the bigger the number of constituents gets. And judging from the index of migration for the period of January-February 2013, we may assume that the number of constituents for the May elections of the mayor will be bigger by a few thousands.
By Babken Tunyan
