Erdogan tries to suppress key challenger, appears to prepare for snap polls, says expert

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will eventually succeed in suppressing the ongoing mass protests sparked by the arrest of his rival, Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu, historian and Turkologist Ruben Safrastyan has said.Safrastyan told Armenpress that Erdogan appears to be preparing for snap polls. 

The next presidential election in Turkiye is scheduled to take place in 2028.Safrastyan said that Imamoglu was arrested because Erdogan saw a potential rival in him. “Erdogan was afraid that in person of Imamoglu he could really face a serious rival. That’s why the charges are a consequence of fear. But on the other hand, these charges are quite serious and appear to be substantiated,” Safrastyan said, adding that the arrest appears to be politically motivated.He said that Erdogan wasn’t expecting the arrest to cause such mass protests, however the Turkish leader knows how to handle such situations. 

“Perhaps he didn’t expect such mass nature of developments, but certainly Erdogan took that step consciously. But overall we shouldn’t overestimate the volumes of these protests in Turkiye, because they haven’t encompassed the whole country. Yes, the wave increased gradually, but it is not a movement of multi-million people like in 2013,”

Safrastyan said, referring to the Gezi protests of 2013, which began in Istanbul over the demolition of a local park.Safrastyan ruled out the possibility of the protests being guided by foreign powers. “Who would benefit from that? Even the new US administration has given Erdogan a carte blanche in the Middle East.

”However, while the direct cause of the protests is Imamoglu’s arrest, the developments are also fueled by the difficult socio-economic situation in the country, Safrastyan said.

“The economic situation in Turkiye is rather tense because many classes of the population are unhappy with the social situation pertaining to the drop of the lira. Of course this plays a role, and the discontent for Erdogan’s economic policy keeps growing. But on the other hand, don’t forget that the situation has been somewhat improving in the recent months due to the finance ministry’s efforts, but the developments of these days led to further decline of the Turkish currency. Nonetheless this year’s economic growth projections are very positive and around 3% growth could be recorded,” the historian said.

Erdogan will succeed in suppressing the wave of protests against him caused by the Istanbul mayor’s arrest, Safrastyan said.

“The wave of protests will weaken and stop in the coming days. The CHP party tried to take advantage of the situation and raise a wave of protest. I don’t think this will strengthen the positions of that political force. Erdogan is a master of [maneuvering] in such situations and proved it during the 2016 attempted coup. He had basically predicted what had happened, and in any case he is getting rid of his rival.

Erdogan appears to be preparing to hold early general elections in Turkiye because that’s how he will have the chance to run for president again. The developments are leading there, and Erdogan is getting ready for that,” Safrastyan said.

Hundreds of demonstrators have been arrested in Turkiye in the ongoing protests.