Don’t believe in the change

Only a few days are left before the 2013 would be over and it is clear that this wasn’t the best year of Armenia’s economy.

According to the freshest results of the Armenian National Statistics Service the index of economic activeness of Armenia was 3.1% for January-November. But the start of the year was pretty good and in the beginning of the year the same index was 8%. The optimism of the government has decreased. This year the government planned 6,2% economic growth but the president assigned the government to reach 7%. But according to the current picture we only have 4.1%. The series of ungratified dreams is not limited by the list. For example, they would always speak that the salaries should go up faster than the prices. But the opposite happened. During the past six months the inflation was 6% and the salaries rose by only 4,4%. And by doing this government wishes to take another 5% of the employees’ salaries for the pension fund. The slump in the construction field continues. During the first 11 months of this year the rates lowered by 8,5%. They were speaking about making the business environment of Armenia more attractive to investors. We put excellent figures in the Doing Business journal but foreign investments, especially the direct ones, are going down drastically. For example, the direct investments of this year compared to the last year reduced by 62,1%, about three times by reaching 155,1 million USD from 409,6 million. Although the rate of export exceeds the rate of import the negative balance of the foreign debt already exceeds 2,6 billion. The rates of migration are becoming uncontrollable. During the first nine months of this year the negative balance of the ones who left Armenia amounts to 122 thousand people. This is a record index of migration. It means that during the tenure of the incumbent government 250 thousand people left Armenia. The state debt, according to national statistics, remained unchanged but then we suddenly unveiled that Armenia accrued 300 million USD worth of debt to GazProm. The only promise that was kept is the budget saving. At the beginning of this year President Serzh Sargsyan said that we would have 35-40 billion worth of budgetary savings by the end of the year. As of now over 60 billion AMD was saved. And this restrictive policy had a negative impact on the economy. This is only a part of the “achievements.” After all this, our honorable statesmen feel bad when they are asked whether they’re going to resign for failing to provide 7% economic growth. Moreover, 3-4 months ago the government would advise not to rush and that this result would be provided. Now they are saying that this was only the President’s urge. They would claim that this is not a plan to economy to have exact predictions and results. This is only a margin, which means the government was striving to reach it. It means the government indirectly admits that not all of the predictions and statements should be taken seriously. Of course, no prediction should be viewed as a 100% truth. The economy cannot be fully predictable. But if those don’t come true then it’s worth analyzing those in order to understand the reasons. But they don’t even make such an attempt. In a word, the government is saying that they should be believed or trusted. This message is not only delivered by this prediction but also through other channels. For example, they have been speaking about the EU Association Agreement for the past three years but then they state that we are becoming a member of the Customs Union. After the statement they are saying that the Association Agreement will be signed but then they sign a half-page statement. The minister of energy has been saying for two years that the gas price didn’t go up at the border but then we find out the opposite. But the saddest thing is that they do this without a portion of mercy or guilty. And based on this logic we should believe in no change, as the government would claim in its political campaigns.

 By Babken Tunyan