Failure of the Accord to have Disastrous Implications for the whole World: Armen Petrosyan
Armen Petrosyan, expert on Arabian studies, in an interview with 168.am touches upon regional issues.
-Mr Petrosyan, despite the accord developed by the USA and Russia on all the parties of Syrian conflict, except terrorists, Federica Mogherini, EU High Representative/Vice-President stated that a “hot war” may originate between Russia and Turkey due to Syrian conflict. In your opinion, is Russian-Turkish war possible on the territory of Syria, on account of the fact, that Russia and the USA seemingly came to a settlement on cease-fire in Syria, and Washington threatens Russia with new sanctions if the situation remains unchanged in Syria?
Probably this accord is the last chance for Syrian conflict resolution on political platform. If the accord isn’t implemented, development in Syria will exclusively move to a battlefield, and that time we’ll not only edify hyper-activation of military actions between internal participants, but also direct interference of foreign actors, and in this context, the variant mentioned by you isn’t excluded, i.e. Russia-Turkey direct confrontation. However, the circumstance, that the accord has been reached by the world leading powers, and generally, in their region, despite that in the space of European states, present-day moods are quite different, suppose, from the situation they faced a year ago, i.e. geo-political centers seemingly became more determined and principal in preventing Syrian conflict, as its implications even now have global impact—we edify rising of terror threat on global scale, increasing flow of immigrants day-by-day and etc. This situation gives hope anticipating, that, however, this accord might be much more productive, and a light at the end of the tunnel seems to be noticed.
-You spoke of anti-terror struggle, however the Islamic state seems to activate in Syria’s northwest, in particular, in Khanasir. Is it possible that they’d be able to blockade pro-governmental paramilitary forces on account of geological position of Khanasir?
Khanasir has always been an apple of discord between governmental forces and anti-government various groupings, as you’ve properly mentioned, it has crucial strategic position and controls Aleppo-Damaskus road, which is of utmost importance. The Islamic state is capturing the territory for the second time. It’s not able to totally blockade the territory, which is in the area of governmental troops. These are temporary steps, which are a reflection to advancing of pro-government paramilitary forces to the south from Rakka (they grasped crucial positions from the Islamic state). If until nor pro-governmental forces failed to return this locality, they’ll do it in near future, as it’s a crucial loop and a way of life for the forces. I should also mention, that based on some information, pro-governmental paramilitary forces have already regained control over their territories.
-Upon the command of Saudi Arabia, anti-Lebanon coalition seems to develop in Arabian countries after Lebanon withdrew from engagement with resolutions criticizing Iran and Hezbollah in Organization of Islamic Cooperation and League of Arab States. Turkey also joined Saudi Arabia. What may this lead to and will it have any impact on Syrian conflict on account of ambitions of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Syria?
By anti-Lebanon campaign lead by Saudi Arabia, we might state, that in Lebanon again Iran defeated Saudi Arabia. As you mentioned, these sanctions against Lebanon are an implication of the policy manifested in international instances against Saudi Arabia. In Lebanon, being in political crisis for already two years, where parliamentary elections have been postponed a few times, dozens of unsuccessive attempts of electing a president were recorded, Lebanon Hezbollah is a more influential institution, impact of which is reflected in the country’s foreign policy, which, naturally, raised serious discontent in Saudi Arabia. Policy led by Saudi Arabia seems to obtain new shades, in the sense, that this country tries to obtain the role of a dictator, which is more touched upon by coming to power of new, more ambitious and adventurous persons. This conflict will last long, and directly is linked to Shia-Sunni conflict. It’ll hardly have any impact on Syrian conflict, as generally Syrian conflict influences Lebanon.
-President of Syria Bashar al-Assad scheduled another day for parliamentary elections—April 13. What do you think, will these elections succeed?
Parliamentary elections are ordinary elections and Bashar al-Assad, by signing a decree on its implementation, solely took the step, which was expected from him as head of the country. Naturally, under current conditions, they’ll hardly be implemented. If, however, cease-fire regime is defined, and negotiations will be launched between the forces, I consider, elections will be postponed for one year, after new Constitution will be adopted, and pursuant it, parliamentary and presidential elections will be held.
-Finally, do you see unfolding of Syrian conflict? What kind of developments is anticipated?
As I’ve already mentioned, the process launched under sponsorship of the USA and Russia gives little hope, that this is a rather complicated process, which requires more principal and targeted activity, especially by the leading powers. As we already know how patricolored the composition of participants of Syrian conflict is, and how varying existent interests are, there will always be powers trying to direct the development in favor of their own interests. As I’ve already noted, leading powers should demonstrate reciprocal principality, only in that case a positive shift may be recorded. And if the accord fails, unfolding of Syrian conflict will be moved to Syrian battleground, implications of which will be disastrous for the international community and the whole world.
By Razmik Martirosyan
