“Armenia Faces Serious Issue in Importing Iranian Gas not due to Azerbaijan, but Russia”
Interview with Lilit Gevorgyan, CIS and Russia senior analyst of authoritative analytical center for defence and security issues Jane’s Intelligence.
-Mrs. Gevorgyan, publication of the list of weaponry allocated to Armenia by Russia caused disagreements in the expert communities of both Russia and Azerbaijan, as well as of Armenia. In your opinion, to which extent was it a permissible step and what did Russia try to settle by that?
-Unfolding of the list was extraordinary and even a striking step, as Russia rarely demonstrates such transparency in providing weaponry to other countries. In my opinion, statement by Russian MFA on the issue indirectly gave explanation to the list publication. According to RF MFA speaker, Russia is in good ties both with Armenia and Azerbaijan, and will continue selling weaponry to both. Although selling of Russian weaponry to Azerbaijan weakens Armenia’s National Security, and despite allied commitments towards Armenia, Russia in no way will restrict its military trade with Azerbaijan. Currently Russia is Azerbaijan’s main weaponry supplier.
There is no ground expecting that Russia will willingly give way to another exporter of Azerbaijani market, especially when official Armenia doesn’t want or isn’t able to impact on behavior of its crucial ally. For Russia’s weak economy military exports are of utmost importance, especially, on account of the fact that the field especially suffered from being one of the targets of sanctions against the West.
Armenian party has adopted the disposition of justifying selling of Russian weaponry long ago. I don’t think Armenia’s authorities will reflect to Russia’s assurances on arming Baku or publication of weaponry list purchase by Armenia. Official Yerevan will prefer the episode with the list to be simply forgotten.
– Speaking of Russia-Turkey tension to which extent this list conforms with the context of current regional developments, in which Azerbaijan appeared in an awkward situation, trying to prove its devotedness to Russia?
-I don’t think publication of the list was for exerting tension over Azerbaijan in Syrian issue or, more exactly, supporting Russia instead of Turkey. Before confrontation with Turkey, Russia agreed on selling weaponry to Armenia, thus delaying the process. I won’t wonder, if this delay is out of not geo-political, but economic considerations. Depreciation of ruble and exchange rate variations left a big and negative impact on Russia’s trade relations. Unfolding of the list was a strike for Armenia, as it ignores Armenia’s security interests and “hints” Azerbaijan what weaponry may be purchased from Russia.
-To your mind, how will regional issues develop on account of USA-Russia accord in Syria, which is still unstable, as some parties report on accord violation? However, what will the accord change in Syria and Russia-Turkey relations?
-Syrian cease-fire, to all probabilities, won’t function, as not only Syrian conflicting parties are engaged with the clash, but regional powers as well, which pursue their interests. However, I think even this cease-fire is a good ground for further more successful cease-fires, in the end, peaceful settlement of the conflict. The thing is, meanwhile one or more than one party of the conflict has hope that may succeed by war, then conflict will continue, i.e. until at least main participants of the conflict, including regional powers, are convinced that peace is more useful for their national interests, than war. As I’ve already mentioned, I don’t observe likewise tendency, although let me say, that the West, and especially the EU, are very interested at least by conflict freezing to decrease flow of migrants.
As for Russia-Turkey relations, they will remain tense, as long as Syrian war will last. However, I don’t think this tension may completely get out of control and turn into explicit military clashes, as it doesn’t come from interests of neither Russia, nor the West. Russian sanctions against Turkey won’t last long. Moreover, contrary to strict words, Moscow missed the crucial fields from sanction: energy and banking system. Turkish construction companies will maintain their billion-dollar accord in Russia. Despite the tension, Russia simply has frozen construction of first Turkey nuclear power plant, but didn’t cancel this beneficiary accord. These steps also edify, that at least Moscow considers present-day tension with Turkey temporary. It’s also worth mentioning, that Moscow activated in Syria not to diminish Turkey’s role, but to cooperate with the West, in which it succeeded. Moscow’s success is also conditioned by weakness of the West. The latter doesn’t have a serious strategy regarding Syrian issue, and crisis of migrants showed the West that lack of this strategy, in the end, hits their national interests, especially in the EU.
-Recently president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev visited Iran, which was rather essential for both parties, although there are opinions, that Iran-Azerbaijan relations can never be frank. What do you think, can Azerbaijan block certain Armenia-Iran initiatives? What threats do you see in Iran-Azerbaijan rapprochement?
-Iran, which comes out of diplomatic isolation, will develop multilateral political and economic relations in the region. Good ties with Azerbaijan, especially, in the field of energy, aren’t able to change Tehran’s attitude towards Armenia. Moreover, from energy standpoint Iran’s potential is rather big, as compared to Azerbaijan. Baku is truly bothered with competition with Iran in energy, but it also tries to make use of commercial possibilities proposed by Iran, for instance, from Iranian investments in Azerbaijani gas, or making use of Iran for energy export. However, I don’t consider, that Azerbaijan has such a strategic capability to change Iran’s foreign policy.
I think, in case of Armenia, the issue isn’t Azerbaijan, but control of Russian enterprises in Armenia’s strategic fields, especially, in the field of energy. Armenia has serious issues in importing Iranian gas or becoming a transit channel for Iranian gas, due to not Azerbaijan, but Russia. If Armenia isn’t able to cooperate with Iran in these issues, then it’s natural enough, that Iran will seek for a partner everywhere, especially now, when unsanctioned.
By Araks Martirosyan
