What May Withdrawal of Russian Troops from Syria Lead to?
Sarkis Kassargian, Executive Director of Al-Khabar TV, responsible for political news, war correspondent and analyst, is the interviewee of 168.am.
–Russia’s president Vladimir Putin made an unexpected statement the day before on withdrawal of the majority of its troops from Syria, stating they should activate negotiations on peaceful settlement with UNO mediation. What may Russia’s surprising decision be explained by?
–We need to clarify, that Russia doesn’t withdraw its all troops, and main part of it. As for instigations for that decision, there is no clear reason yet, but if we analyze, a few reasons may be singled out. The first one: Russia intends to leave impression among European states and the USA that it wasn’t a supporter of military settlement of the conflict, and reason for military intervention was purpose for establishing political agreement. The second one: Russia wants to inhibit Western sanctions, thus its best way is standing in the heading position of political agreement in Syrian conflict. If we need to speak of political agreement, naturally, main part of it should be prevention or weakening of military actions. The third reason: I think, there is desire to exert pressure over Syrian authorities, so that political agreement was put forward more easily and without any preconditions.
Surely, we may say, maybe USA-Russia accord was existent in all these, which isn’t clear yet, and will be revealed with time. In my opinion, forces, which may follow actions of Turkish forces, will remain in Syria, and may at any time, in case of any change, provide interference of Russia into Syrian issue. I consider, Russian military airbase in Latakia will be maintained, marine center as well.
–To your mind, how will this decision reflect on military situation in Syria, as during military actions by Russia in Syria governmental troops were recording progress, suppressing the Islamic State and al-Nustra grouping?
–If this decision will be truly implemented, naturally enough, governmental forces won’t be able to maintain their brilliant progress, however, we need to take into consideration, that this decision was followed by USA-Russia peaceful accord, i.e. currently existence of those Russian troops was against radical terrorist groupings. I consider, however, Russians will wage a war against these forces, as an accord exists between Russia and the West.
– However, how strong and stable USA-Russia accord will be?
–It’s difficult to say, as we speak of strategic, military, political and economic interests of leading powers. I think, these agreements will remain in force, and situation won’t change in Syria, until Obama leaves the White House.
Change of situation in Syria is exclusively conditioned by political agreement, there is no other way. Truly enough, military progress was a means for Syria to have more effectual position around negotiation table, everybody shares the idea, that settlement of Syrian conflict is exclusively a political one.
–Recently Armenia’s president paid an official visit to Russia, where during the meeting with his Russian counterpart, he stated that Armenia supports Russian actions in Syria. On account of targets of those activities, does this statement endanger Armenia or not?
–In my opinion, it’s not the statement to endanger our country. Firstly, I consider Armenia with its position—both political, and military and economic—isn’t able to walk against Russian line, it’s not able to follow policy by the West as well, as that policy in this issue is often out of Turkey’s interests. When Armenia supports Russian actions, they aren’t only against radical forces, but those financed from Turkey, thus, accordingly, Armenia should be against that policy.
– There are allegations that with likewise statements Armenia is becoming a target for these very groupings, that may act against Armenia through Turkey and Azerbaijan.
–That threat is always existent, as we speak not only of Turkey, which keeps its borders close for Armenia, pursues anti-Armenian policy and supports Azerbaijan’s disposition in NKR conflict. Turkey leads and controls those groupings thus it’s not a new threat, it may use it against Armenia, Artsakh front at any time, quite easily. Thus, statements by Armenia’s authorities are proper.
By Araks Martirosyan
