“Armenia’s Condition is Bothering: although there is no Direct threat from the Islamic State, the Threat is Rather Big”
Vicken Cheterian, representative of CIMERA center in Geneva, political analyst, is the interviewee of 168.am.
–Mr. Cheterian, international community still discusses partial withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria, although currently tragic explosions recorded in Brussels are in the center of the world’s attention. Which was Russia’s purpose and how will current situation develop in Syria from now on?
–I learnt about terror acts in Brussels a while ago and I don’t have enough information, accordingly, I can’t comment on it now. As for Russia’s disposition, partial withdrawal of Russian troops coincided with another phase of Geneva negotiations. In my conviction, it was directed to the regime in Damascus, as it’s clear that political disagreements are existent between Moscow and Damascus on settlement of Syrian conflict.
It’s clear that Assad pursues the purpose not to yield opposition, and at the same time, if no concessions are recorded, war will go on, in case if Assad doesn’t have material possibilities to continue war, i.e. Assad intends to continue war not by his own means, but through outer sources, however, at the same time, he doesn’t want to accept standpoints by his foreign allies. Obviously, Putin’s withdrawal from Syria was an immense oppression towards the regime of Damascus.
–It turns out that neither party engaged with the conflict intends to struggle against the Islamic State, and also fails to pave a way for political settlement. Which is the way out ?
–Currently there are no perspectives for the settlement of the situation. The phenomenon of the Islamic State is conditioned by collapse of political structures in the region. At present we have a range of states, which collapsed in the Middle East, former regimes currently don’t function, and it should be thought of substituting them. There is no answer to this question, until there is political answer to this question, one shouldn’t revenge, as likewise revenge will increase that phenomenon, which is called the Islamic State. If we fail to solve the issues, and only superficially cover it, the conflicts will more deepen though.
–Which is in-depth solution when negotiations are not productive and main actors of Syrian conflict are beyond Russia-West accord?
– As I mentioned, international negotiations aren’t often productive in likewise issues. Every society should itself be able to initiate its political system. Today political systems of that region are collapses, and solution is exactly there.
–Turbulences are also existent in Turkey, conditioned by terror acts recorded recently. There are concerns in Armenia as well in this regard, on Islamic threat, what should Armenia beware of?
– There are two terror sources in Turkey, one of which is Kurdish: there are radical Kurdish groupings, which intend that struggle by Turkish authorities in pro-Kurdish regions transferred and reached Ankara and Istanbul. There is the second source as well: the Islamic State, if we look into these two sources, we’ll understand to which extent Erdoğan’s policy is unsuccessful, as among those two powers it has chosen supporting radical ISIS and hitting Kurds, however, neither his alliance is successful with the ISIS, nor fight against Kurds. The occurred is the punishment for Erdoğan’s policy.
In my opinion, Armenia’s condition is bothering, there is no direct threat from the Islamic State, however, there is bigger threat, as, in the end, Turkey is a country neighboring to Armenia, and the latter is in problematic ties with Turkey. And if Turkey enters a rather unsafe era, it may contain big threats for Armenia.
I don’t mean Turkey will impose some actions against Armenia, but if civil war develops in Turkey, and the latter becomes an instable country, where chaotic powers are existent, and if it reaches the condition of Syria and Iraq, it will be a big threat to Armenia. Insecurity in Turkey may initiate various threats for Armenia and, currently, we can’t even guess what scale volume it may be.
By Araks Martirosyan
