Karabakh Traces of Kerry’s Moskovian Visit
The US Secretary of State paid his third two-day official visit to Moscow on March 23. Like in case of former two visits John Kerry, in a meeting with Vladimir Putin, RF president, and Sergey Lavrov, RF MFA, held negotiations on a range of issues regarding international security against the background of Syrian and Ukrainian conflicts, terror threat sharpened in Europe regarding Minsk accords, withdrawal of the greater part of Russian troops from Syria and another phase of Syrian conflict in Geneva.
Noteworthy enough, the first persons of American and European foreign policy, Germany’s MFA were in Moscow. And although trilateral official meeting didn’t take place, counterparts from the three countries—Lavrov, Steinmeyer and Kerry, spend a non-official evening in Ritz Carlton hotel near the Kremlin. However, the most curious part of Kerry’s visit to Russia was his meeting with Vladimir Putin, RF president. Kerry’s briefcase was in the focus of ritual communication, with which he visited Moscow, and which became a subject for irony by Putin. Content of four-hour negotiations, naturally, according to Russian media outlets, wasn’t revealed, although results of the meeting have been summarized by John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov. Essentially, they divided their speeches into two parts, firstly touching upon Syrian conflict, then to the crisis in the Ukraine, from which—Minsk accords.
Sergey Lavrov stated that negotiations started from thorough discussion of bilateral relations, and, according to him, time showed that statements on Russia’s isolation aren’t grounded. “Russia never avoided cooperation with the USA, however, he insists that cooperation was based on the principle of equality,” Lavrov stressed, saying that they had long and detailed discussion on Middle East settlement. “We talked much on the Ukraine,” he said, stating that Minsk accords are useless. According to Kerry, Moscow and Washington may efficiently cooperate, vivid proof of which is their cooperation in Syria.
“When we work jointly, we have results,” Kerry said. The latter also stated that the USA sees Syria as a unified, complete, secular state, and the Islamic State as a terror organization, which should be completely eliminated. It’s becoming clear from Syrian observations of Kerry and Lavrov that any change hasn’t been recorded in their dispositions regarding Syrian authorities.
As for crisis in the Ukraine, the US representative simply shaped America’s disposition: territorial integrity of the Ukraine, including the Crimea. According to Kerry, if agreements are implemented, Obama promised to lift sanctions against Russia. Kerry also stated that Ukrainian pilot, sentenced in Russia, should return to her homeland. He also hinted that Putin let him know, that it’s possible. Concluding, Kerry stated that throughout years the two had arguments, however, likewise dialogues may change everything. “Lavrov and I came to the conclusion, that it should always be implemented,” Kerry said, adding that there is progress regarding normal Russia-USA dialogue.
Victor Nadein-Rayevski, senior researcher of the Institute of Political and Social Studies of the Black Sea-Caspian region, told “168 hours” that against the background of West-Russia tension, likewise visits are positive on the whole. In his opinion, Russia-led policy in Syria and recent resolution changed the existent inclination in USA-Russia relations.
“In the end, one of instigations of withdrawal of the greater part of Russian troops from Syria is Assad’s uncompromising policy, by that Russia expressed its discontent to Assad, leaving him fight alone against the Islamic State, which, as everybody understand, he isn’t able to. In fact, there was rapprochement of dispositions of the West and Russia regarding this issue, which made a positive ground for these negotiations,” Russian politician stated. As for the crisis in the Ukraine, according to him, Russia will implement Minsk accords, if they implement all the parties. “Regarding this issue Russia will follow steps of all engaged parties,” Victor Nadein-Rayevski said, considering the meeting successful, although in Munich Vladimir Medvedev, Russia’s Prime Minister, spoke of cold war and existent serious tension in relations. In his conviction, this may be regarded as one of working meetings of Russia-USA on these two issues, during which breakthroughs haven’t been recorded. Weak points of foreign policy of Armenia were interesting after the meeting to Armenia and its expert community.
Before the visit there were expectations that in Moscow Kerry will discuss the issue of ceasefire establishment on NKR conflict zone in Washington; according to some rumors, expecting Aliyev-Sargsyan meeting, as the USA has circulated the initiative by the US congressmen of investment of investigation mechanism for incidents on NK conflict zone. Moreover, these days OSCE Minsk group American co-chair James Warlick said that Minsk group co-chairs support the proposal by the US congressmen on initiating technical and structural steps on Artsakh conflict zone on ceasefire maintenance regime.
However, Moscow was still silent regarding the issue. Moreover, during the visit of Kerry, Maria Zakharova, official representative of the MFA of RF, touching upon Ilham Aliyev’s, president of Azerbaijan, statement, that Minsk group co-chairs are destructive and act in favor of Armenia, i.e. it needs to be clarified from Azerbaijan, that we speak of a co-chair, essentially, assuring Azerbaijan that Russia doesn’t act in favor of Armenia.
“We can’t take these words to our address. Throughout long years Russia proved its sincere and conscientious purposes. We sincerely want settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,” Zakharova stated. In an interview with our newspaper Victor Nadein-Rayevski stated it’s not excluded that in the off-the-record parties exchanged opinions on peaceful settlement of NKR conflict. “Even if it didn’t occur, I’m sure soothing of USA-Russia tension will be positively reflected on negotiations of peaceful settlement,” the Russian analyst said.
Sergey Minasyan, Deputy Director of the Caucasus Institute, analyst, supposed that NKR conflict in Moscow hasn’t been discussed at all. According to him, it’s a positive shift, as it wouldn’t want the issue to have primary importance, to suspend developments in Syria or the Ukraine. “I consider there are more crucial and urgent issues for the USA and Russia, which are linked to wide-scale wars and humanitarian disasters. Accordingly, I think, this also speaks of the fact that both the USA and Russia don’t perceive the situation, existent in NKR conflict zone, as a situation leading to dangerous wide-scale activities , on the other hand, the fact that the USA and Russia may come to an accord in solving serious issues, will be positively reflected on Minsk group work, and there is no need to say something new. Russia, the USA and France will work in a manner they have worked for decades, it’s another thing, that one of the parties doesn’t want to take a step back, and without it we won’t record any serious change in Artsakh issue. There is no any shift in the process of NK conflict peaceful settlement not due to approaches by the USA and Russia, but the parties are far from compromising, this mainly refers Azerbaijan. Russia and the USA had higher relations in the previous years, however, it didn’t reflect in any way on NK issue, i.e. unsettled situation basically doesn’t depend on the relations of the USA and Russia, although, obviously positive shifts will only contribute to productive functioning of Minsk group,” Minasyan said, adding that the point is that Minks group doesn’t want or isn’t able to impact one of the parties so that it agrees on terms of zero level demand, i.e. establishment of provision of trust mechanisms on contact line, and meanwhile such a recognizance lacks, we can’t speak of long-term peaceful settlement. “The fact that Minsk group co-chairs’ relations may somewhat improve, it’ll be a positive shift at least from the perspective of excluding wide-scale military actions,” Minasyan said.
By Araks Martirosyan
