Karabakh Issue is Being Settled: Who will Concede more?
Yesterday president Barak Obama had a telephone conversation with RF president Vladimir Putin, during which he expressed readiness to activate efforts of the U.S. in NK conflict settlement. This was reported by the White House. “President Obama expressed readiness to intensify efforts with Russia and France as OSCE MG Co-Chairs to reach comprehensive settlement of the conflict,” the statement issued by the White house reads.
Prior to that similar statement was released by the press service of the Kremlin, stating that Putin informed Obama about the results of the trilateral meeting launched in St. Petersburg on June 20, as an OSCE MG Co-Chair. As per assessment of the Kremlin, Obama “highly appreciated efforts exerted by Russia.”
On account of Russia-USA sharpened relations this telephone conversation may even be considered sensational in the sense that both states, having principal discordances on a range of crucial issues, are discussing Karabakh conflict on a state level. To all probabilities, this may mean one thing: puzzling out of Karabakh conflict is either found or is too close to its final destination, so close, that maybe last “nuances” are being agreed on the USA and Russia presidential level.
It’s also worth remembering that after the April war intensive talks, telephone conversations have been recorded between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and RF Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Again under maintenance of disagreements between Russia and the USA regarding other global issues.
There is an impression that having disagreements in other issues, both states came to an agreement in Karabakh conflict settlement. Moreover, on account of the circumstance that the U.S. president Barak Obama is finishing his second term in the Office, and it shouldn’t be excluded that before leaving, as an acquisition of his presidency, he intends to record settlement of the most explosive conflict in the South Caucasus.
It’s difficult to say under which conditions settlement of Karabakh issue may occur.
Judging from the fact, that on the one hand, the American side, together with the European side, puts forward the issue of installation of investigative mechanisms on the contact line, to which Azerbaijan is against with Russia’s silent support, and on the other hand, “Russian plan” anticipates return of some liberated territories for the referendum on resolution of Karabakh’s status (the Armenian side insists on reverse succession, i.e. referendum, then return of territories), it may be supposed, that finally, if the agreement is recorded, it’ll occur around some intermediary variant.
To all probabilities, the Armenian side will concede not 5 regions, as anticipated by the “Russian plan,” but for instance, 2 or 3, for which details on holding a referendum on Karabakh’s status will be more certain.
And the most essential point: despite the fact, whether this seeming agreement will become a ground for the peace agreement or not, Obama-Putin telephone conversation is of utmost importance to the sense that all the assessments, that Karabakh conflict settlement was passed on Russia’s initiative, have vanished.
Obama’s support to Putin means, that even if there was a Russian attempt to develop a format parallel to OSCE MG, then it failed or was brought to the “framework” of the Co-Chairs.
By Robert Ter-Sargsyan
