Russia and Azerbaijan are Forcing War to Armenia and the West
Prior to Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting to be held in Paris positions of the parties to the conflict in NK conflict peaceful settlement process have been clarified on a high level. Although Sergey Lavrov, RF Foreign Minister, who paid a visit to Baku stated that the sides are as close to the settlement of the conflict as ever, Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, stated the day before, that Nagorno-Karabakh will never obtain independence, moreover, Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity will be restored.
“All the mediators share the opinion, that the conflict was settled by a phase-to-phase variant. Nagorno-Karabakh will never obtain independence, the second Armenian statehood won’t be established in the territory of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity should be restored, the status quo should be maintained, occupied territories should be liberated and Azerbaijani population should return there,” Aliyev introduced Azerbaijani variant of the conflict settlement.
In his turn Serzh Sargsyan, in an interview with Arabic “Al Mayadeen” TV stated that NK population may live a safe life exclusively out of the borders of Azerbaijan, stressing that as a security guarantor of Karabakhi people, this was and is one of the most crucial issues. “And that security may only be provided out of the borders of Azerbaijan. There is no any doubt that upon some mean joke Karabakh will appear within the borders of Azerbaijan, not a single Armenian will remain in Karabakh. Thus, the most important is that NKR wasn’t included in the borders of Azerbaijan,” Armenia’s president stressed. Developing the topic of the conflict, he stated, that regarding the status NK population should make a decision led by the principle of self-determination and the right to free expression of nations, and Azerbaijan will be obliged to respect that decision. “Surely, first and foremost, the will is those of living in NKR, in which status they’d prefer to live: be an independent state or join to the Republic of Armenia? The most important for me is that security of NKR population was provided, so that they had the possibility to live in their historical fatherland as long as the world will exist.”
Andrey Areshev, Expert at the Strategic Culture Foundation, political scientist, assessing Lavrov’s remarks, told “168 Hours” that such statements comprise a part of diplomatic ethics, negotiations. In his words, such assessments previously were heard as well, which is enough. “As we know, nothing has been agreed yet. Positions of the sides—Baku, Yerevan and Stepanakert, remain in contrast. In particular, as far as I understand, the Armenian side is categorically against, the formulation, that NK may be self-determined only in the form of Azerbaijan, is not favorable to the Armenian side. This is one of the main discordances. I don’t observe possibility on settling them within negotiations yet. In any case, exchange of views, meetings of the presidents and Foreign Ministers are always useful,” Areshev said.
Reflecting to possible results of the meeting to be held in Paris, that maybe success will be recorded regarding installation of investigative mechanisms, he stated that the issue depends on a range of components from financial up to geo-political factors. “As far as I understand, they’re not agreed with the whole volume, thus, it’s difficult to say that they’ll be agreed in near future, including within Paris negotiations. Negotiation phases were rather numerous, thus, as we understand, they gave certain benefits firstly for the reason that the sides negotiated to each other.
Meanwhile we know, as the experience showed, political-diplomatic actions and talks between presidents are accompanied with military operations on NK zone, which, surely, more alienated the sides from mutually acceptable agreements. Thus, I don’t observe any signs, which would break this scenario and record success during the Paris meeting,” Areshev said. He considers that, unfortunately, threat of military clashes is rather high.
“We observed it in early April, and it seems to me, that at this phase the best prescription is restoration of military-technical balance between the sides from escalation of military clashes. As far as I understand activities by the Armenian side, including, cadre changes in RA Defense Ministry, rearrangements, works on elimination of shortcomings of the April war are developing on a large volume.” Areshev stated.
Aghasi Yenokyan, politicial scientist, doesn’t consider Russia-Azerbaijan statements a compulsory diplomatic condition. He considers, behind this other programs and intentions are observed. He told that statements by RF Foreign Minister and Azerbaijani president show that the two states mean Russian scenario of peace on NK conflict zone, which they should impose in the region. According to Yenokyan, they suppose they’ll be able to solely settle NK conflict without taking into consideration the international community, obtaining peace the way they imagine.
“I think, it’s excessive optimism from their side, as Russia won’t be allowed to enter into trade relations, and in fact, not to recognize Karabakh’s independence, deploying here Russian troops with the price of resuming new war,” Aghasi Yenokyan noted. In his conviction the West won’t allow it to Russia and Azerbaijan, and the forthcoming visit of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to Moscow will cover that issue.
“In fact, Russians, by accelerating and intensifying contacts with Azerbaijan, attempt to lead the conflict to unilateral settlement, and the whole sense of the visit should be returning parallel Russian process to settlements within OSCE,” the expert stated. To the question what should be anticipated from presidential meeting in Paris, Aghasi Yenokyan stated that Azerbaijan has great reservations regarding control mechanisms, and if it’s possible to record some progress, it’ll be a great achievement, as those mechanisms mean non-resumption of war, intention, that it won’t be resumed.
“Meanwhile Russians, who state that again armaments are being sold to Azerbaijan, show that they and Azerbaijan share the opinion that the issue should be settled through a war. I think, progress is anticipated in Paris. Meeting in Paris is a progress in itself, as it’s due to these meetings peace is being maintained. We observed small progress, Azerbaijan accepted expansion of Kaprzyk’s Office in St. Petersburg, which was one small step of control mechanism. I think, such steps will be possible in Paris as well,” Yenokyan concluded.
By Araks Martirosyan
