Given the massive arsenals of weaponry both sides now possess, new fighting could easily escalate into an all-out conflict far more destructive than the 1991-94 war. Baku and Yerevan could invoke their military assistance treaties with Turkey and Russia respectively. Neither wants to get involved, but would be under big pressure to honor their commitments in the region.
The April war brought sharp change of game rules, created totally new situation, where there is no any factor or mechanism for deterrence. The legend, that the international community won’t allow resumption of conflict, has vanished.
The most “seductive” here is the investing company. It’s registered in the offshore. Earlier Hetq.am reported that 100% shareholder of “Dvin” Hotel Complex CJSC—CCG Caucasian Communication Group Limited has been registered in Cyprus, in 2008.
The United States, Europe, and their partners must officially recognize the Mountainous Karabagh Republic within its constitutional frontiers.
“Rather serious rearrangements in all aspects will occur here, Armenia should review its relations with Russia. Activities by OSCE MG should also be reviewed to some extent.”
The issue should be divided into two parts: if the moment comes and political processes are beneficial for its recognition, at least, we should have that sense, that extension of international recognition element will follow it, and that it doesn’t start and end in Armenia.
Armenia’s 21 trade banks altogether paid taxes and penalties to the state budget comprising AMD 9 billion 324.9 million in the first quarter of 2016. It’s less by AMD 416.8 million or 43% from the index for the same period of last year.
Overnight May 5-6 the situation did not change in the Karabakh-Azerbaijani line of contact. Azerbaijani forces continued violating ceasefire agreement in line of contact by firing various caliber weapons, 82mm mortars and anti-tank grenade launcher (RPG-7).
The movie, 1915, takes place in the present as a theater director attempts to stage a play about the genocide, and the actors begin feeling a visceral, realistic connection to those who died a century earlier.
Very often we don’t notice, that our personal behavior and choice contribute to aggressive actions by the adversary. Should we wait for sharpening and escalation, imposed by the adversary, to make a demarche imitation negotiation process?
