Farewell to former Turkey: where will the Armenian Cause be in Turkey’s new agenda?
“Current situation of Armenia-Turkey relations is beneficial to Erdogan’s regime,” Cengiz Aktar, Turkish political analyst, told 168.am, reflecting to results of referendum held in Turkey and new possible developments in Armenia-Turkey relations under current state of affairs.
Note, based on referendum results from 99.97% of polling stations 51.41% of voters said “yes” to the constitutional referendum held in Turkey on April 16. Anadolu news agency reports that number of “no” voters comprised 48.59%. Turkey’s largest cities, however, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, voted “no”. The referendum anticipates the largest changes after establishment of Turkish Republic.
On the whole, 18 articles of the Constitution should be amended. Pursuant these changes the president assumes liabilities to directly appoint crucial officials, including ministers. He has the right to appoint one or several vice-presidents. The president will be able to interfere with the judicial system, he will decide whether to declare state of emergency or not.
The age for being elected an MP will be reduced from 25 to 18. Elections of Mejlis and presidential elections will be held once in 5 years, on the same day. Changes will come into force from 2019. Cengiz Aktar told that these results were fully predictable.
According to him, this was definite that “yes” won’t have low results, as Erdogan will attempt to establish those changes by all means, very high results—80-90% in favor of “yes” wouldn’t allow Erdogan to show at least artificial democracy and 52% is ideal for the incumbent authorities, by which both Erdogan’s positions are strong and non-existent democracy is shown to the public. Although he believes it’s clear to the world what goes on: the country enters another stage of deepening of dictatorship, which is full of big instability, pressure and incomprehensible foreign and domestic policy.
“It’s regretful, that currently I don’t see internal resource to confront all this, as social polarization, tension between the two wings is deepening. Let me attach attention to the circumstance that voting of big cities shows Erdogan’s failure, civilized, wealthy, conscious part is centralized in the cities, which is against these changes, and outskirts, the needy society accepted these changes.
Now the leading power has bigger resources to exert pressure over the part centralized in big cities, they are reporters, political scientists, human right defenders, environmentalists and etc. I don’t observe any opportunity that democracy supporters were able to win Erdogan at least until 2019, when these changes will come into force,” he said.
According to the latter these changes will provide Erdogan the opportunity to implement his programs more fluently and without obstacles focusing all attention in hands of one power. Aktar said even until 2019 Erdogan won’t wait and will start using changes enshrined by the new Constitution. Aktar believes the first target will be Kurds and liberals.
Reflecting to Armenia-Turkey relations, the Turkish political scientist said Erdogan’s regime doesn’t have special purposes in this direction and Armenia-Turkey relations are behind the political doctrine of Turkey’s foreign policy.
“There is a clear formula that negotiations won’t be launched with the Armenian side, borders won’t open without settlement of NK conflict and Azerbaijan’s consent, probability of which is zero. Current state of affairs is yet beneficial to the Turkish authorities, as Kurdish issue is big for Turkey, in the upcoming years country’s all resources will be directed against Kurds, and for incumbent authorities Kurds and Armenians are identified, they won’t pave a way with Armenians, unless Kurdish issue isn’t settled for Erdogan,” Turkish political scientist said.
By Araks Martirosyan
