“If Armenia, Belarus or any EEU member country leaves it, it’ll be a demarche, which Russia won’t pardon”
Interview with Valery Karbalevich, Radio Liberty’s Belarusian editorial office’s political commentator.
Mr. Karbalevich, again unexpected crisis has been launched in Russia-Belarus relations. These days information was provided by authoritative media outlets that Belarus is leaving Moscow’s integration projects. Of course, it became clear later, that this isn’t true, and there is a complaint among the president of Belarus, which led to crisis. Which are in-depth reasons of this crisis?
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko’s large press conference was held recently, during which he denied the information disseminated in media outlets that he is leaving EEU and CSTO. This was information bait spread by Russian Regnum News Agency. In fact, it’s a resource known with its anti-Belarus and anti-Lukashneko scandalous articles.
Thus, it was initially clear to me that there is no any gleam of reality in it. And the point that Belarus and Russia are in critical relations today, Lukashenko is touching upon it, that crisis, I’m sure, doesn’t spread on the projects, part of which comprises Belarus with Russia. In those projects suspension of membership of Belarus will become a red line, which will be impossible to pass, Lukashenko perfectly realizes it.
In your opinion, what’s the purpose of information bait, when, however, it became clear later that Belarus has complaints and those publications aren’t without grounding?
Purpose is to discredit Lukashenko, proving that Belarus has chosen the Ukrainian scenario, Belarus is Russia’s enemy, Belarus is turning its face from Russia, looking eastward. Those agencies are persistently developing that line. As for Belarusian complaints, during the press conference Lukashenko gave clarifications, accusing Russia of violating international agreements of zones bordering with Russia.
However, I consider, Belarus complains of continuous support decrease by Russia, it’s decreasing objectively, as prices for oil have dropped, as a result, energy grants provided to Belarus have dropped, and it caused crisis, as economy of Belarus faces hard times, Belarus requires restoration of volumes, assistance, and Russia isn’t ready for that. This is the main conflict in Belarus-Russia relations today. Prices for oil and gas have been a subject of negotiations between Belarus and Russia for a year, and that issue won’t solve.
Gas is provided to Belarus with the lowest price. In fact, Belarus attempts to define cheaper prices for energy resources.
Yes, it wants additional benefits.
A situation has been established, when EEU, its regulations, free trade zone don’t function, Russia isn’t able to satisfy economic demands of its allies, president of Belarus stated on it on the highest level: he insists that international contracts don’t function, Russia isn’t able to satisfy demands of its partners instead of productivity of that membership. What do you think how long it may continue with this dynamics?
Currently EEU is facing a crisis stage, trade turnover doesn’t grow, just the contrary. Thus, I don’t observe serious perspectives. That union was founded not by economic but political motives by Russia, which had not economic, but political interests. It was established quickly, at first Customs Union was established, and yet not developed—EEU started to function, free trade zone didn’t develop and function either. In fact, when lower floors of the building aren’t built, it’s impossible to build the upper ones.
Thus, perspectives will generally lack, that union works very badly, agreements signed aren’t being implemented, projects aren’t realized, moreover when Russia—the top interested party of the union—faces crisis and isn’t bale to support countries in need.
However, it’ll continue functioning, nothing extraordinary will happen to that union, it’ll function by recording not so good results. Formally it won’t suspend its activity, this is my anticipation. No any EEU member country, including Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, won’t pass that red line, as it’ll be a demarche toward Russia, which won’t pardon it, no one is ready to that and doesn’t want likewise scenario, as there are interests. Membership to EEU is one of the components of devotedness to Russia and the countries joining that union out of several reasons don’t intend to worsen their relations with Russia.
What will Russia’s reflection to that demarche be?
A bad scenario, maybe in the form of not so pro-Ukrainian scenario, but not so good developments will anticipate to countries passing the defined red line.
By Araks Martirosyan
