Is Everything that Bad?
Criticizing the government is the easiest thing. Not a single government may be found which isn’t vulnerable in this regard.
When this refers Armenia’s government, thorough examination of one of periodic reports issued by National Statistical Service is enough to speak of shortcomings and issues for a whole month, until the second report is released.
Economic activity growth? Ridiculous, no one feels that impact. How can economy grow and trade turnover—reduce? Growth in industry? It’s funny, no growth has been recorded, only gold mines have been intensively exploited.
Statistics has its proof as well. In short, topic for criticism has no ending. Several convincing points can be enumerated and said—not a good job. Or more categorical—you don’t work at all. Proof is the result of your work, which edifies official statistics.
This means, we believe official statistics, if figures are declining, otherwise…Agriculture has grown? Just painted figures. Investments have grown? Lie. Salaries have increased and prices have decreased? We don’t feel it, just a tale. We believe in bad. And with joy we propagate the bad and the negative, as criticizing the government isn’t only easy, but also pleasant to the ear.
However, we should confess, if decision was made in the NSS to seriously misguide, then they’d paint the figures, so that they “harmonize.” Isn’t it a small mistake when we don’t believe in 5.1% economic activity growth stated in the same document, but we believe in the declining internal trade turnover indicator, mentioned in the same report and attach attention of economic block representatives. Even if we accept that growth is real, we complain—it could have been higher.
Complaining and criticizing is our right. However, let’s try just for interest, believe in other figures as well, rely on them and make judgments. What will come out?
Firstly, despite anticipations, 2015 was concluded with growth. GDP growth indicator hasn’t been published yet, although it’s clear that it’ll be about 3%. It’s not bad if we take into account that almost all international institutions anticipated decline, and at best—zero growth.
It’ll turn out that despite difficulties and negative external signals, expenditures provided by state budget in 2015 have been totally implemented. It’s true that economic state didn’t allow rising pensions and salaries, however, their payment normally developed, there were no any delays.
You’d say the debt increased, it’s due to the debt, that budget was implemented. Right, they already have more than USD 5 billion. However, we should also say, that international institutions considered and still continue considering us as creditworthy. True, growth of debt as it is can’t be a positive shift, but under existent conditions, it’s the only variant not to fail the situation.
Central Bank and the government succeeded in providing stable currency throughout 2015.
We say—it’s bad, here export suffers, Armenian Dram should have been depreciated. But, to be frank, what do we have for import?
Instead of price growth we have price reduction. Bad? Of course, we reply. Price reduction edifies of stagnation and decline. In fact, to be honest, we should accept that accelerated growth and moderate inflation gave ground to sooth social tension. Purchasing capacity of employees grew.
To be honest, we should admit, that it didn’t “sink,” although economy is having bad times, it’s not paralyzed. This is a good indicator as well. As compared to the region, and especially with our EEU partners, it’ll turn out that we are in a better condition.
Despite the circumstance, that almost all negative signals seem to “fit” us for causing most damage (sharp fall of private money transfer, reduction in world prices for metals, deterioration of Russia’s economic condition and etc).
In short, everything is against us. Do we confront? Seemingly-yes.
However, of course, besides official newsfeed, likewise viewpoints can’t be found. Perhaps, there isn’t need of it.
However, is there any need to dense and notice only black on the palette. Hardly. Only pink can’t be chosen and be satisfied what we have. If we want to reach developed countries, we need a double-digit growth. Moreover, a sound growth, based on only one branch. We don’t simply need growth, but development. However…
However, we should be optimistic and say what the government doesn’t want to say. It’s simple and disappointing truth, the government solves the problem of not of development but an issue of double-digit, and of avoiding economic collapse.
Currently we are on-board a small, worn-out and dilapidated ship, which appeared in a storm. And we not only complain, that the ship is shaking, but also—there is no hot water in the cabin, and the food isn’t tasty at all. We swear at the staff and the captain (who we don’t like so much) taking into account the fact that his purpose is keeping ship on water and not sinking. He still succeeds. And this is also not bad, on account of the fact, that the storm is becoming more and more furious, and has swollen a few ships. Surely, we could have had a bigger “ship”, more modern and reliable. But this is what we have. Why it’s exactly this one? Why a better “ship” couldn’t have been purchased throughout 25 years? This is another issue, on which it’s a bit late to reckon.
By Hamlet Davtyan
