Analytical forecast of lament
The most interesting economic information of the week was the publication of the U.S. CIA. Mildly-said, this popular agency releases its prediction about economic development every four months. Every time the release of this report becomes the key theme of economists of all countries.
We may assume that the prediction of the CIA creates not only an expert-level discussion but also becomes open to the broad public. In Armenia, however, we never advert to this document. Perhaps the reason is that our economy doesn’t very much depend of the world economy. But this approach can hardly be considered realistic.
The fact that our government ignored the world crisis caused a lot of damage to our economy. First, let’s present the demographic data of the CIA report. In 2030 the world population will grow by 25% compared to 2010 and will reach 8,5 billion. During these 20 years the urbanization rats will increase three times. 60% of the world population will be city residents. India, China and USA will have the largest population. The top 10 will conclude Russia. After the collapse of the USSR the population has been decreasing year by year. The peak was in 2000. On that year the index of death exceeds the birthrate index by 680 thousand. The Russian authorities are proud that in 2012 the population of Russia grew for the first time. But it grew by a very small number – 790 people.
But according to the American forecast by 2030 the population in this country will decrease by 10 million. And the Muslim population will grow twice compared to the current 10%. If this forecast comes true it is obvious that Russia will speed up and proliferate its “Counterparts” project especially at the expense of the neighboring non-Muslim states. According to the forecast, for the first time in the world more than the half of the population of the Earth will live above the indexes of poverty. It means that the 25% growth of the population will provide 35% demand of food. It is also predicted that the consumption will grow twice. Based on this circumstance, the Americans assume that wars will be raged among the resource-less states especially in the Middle East, south of Sahara in Africa, south-east Asia. But it is assumed that the economic rates of Asian states will exceed those of the other states.
In 2030 for the first time China will have the greatest economy in the world. And the united bulk of Asian states (even without Japan) will exceed the joint GDP of USA and EU. And this happens in the case when the wars are forecast in this zone. Moreover, in the coming 20 years the most terrible thing is that the wars will be launched with the use of nuclear weapon.
The Americans assume that the terrorists will also apply new tools of terror. The report also notes that the volume of oil processing will drop, which will create difficult times for pol producing states. US is planning to stop importing fuel. But this doesn’t look too realistic. Americans are not too concerned about the military development of Asian states. The military forces of these states are not too developed. In this sense, the most worrisome country is Russia.
According to Americans in the near 20 years Russia won’t be able to diversify its economy and develop. Therefore, it will strongly depend on exportation of fuel and gas. They predict three scenarios for twenty years for Russia. The first is optimistic. Russia with its development value system will integrate with the west. The second scenario is less optimistic. Due to its military power Russia will oppose the west and the economic giants of the east. The third scenario is more pessimistic. Russia may become hostile to the west and east by trying to restore their mighty power. These are the opinions of the experts of one of the greatest bureaus of the world.
By Ara Galoyan
