Armenia escaped from deeper relations with the United States not to make Russia upset
Interview with Armen Kharazyan, former deputy Ambassador of Armenia to the United States, former head of the RA foreign ministry department of defense strategy
-Armenian Prime-Minister Tigran Sargsyan was planning to visit the United States but the visit was delayed. Is the reason the instable situation in the US or anything else?
-Probably the reason is the American government’s partial shutdown. As a result of this, a number of projects have been delayed or cancelled. In foreign policy they delayed actions according to priority sequence. I am not sure if this was the real reason.
-What is the expectation from the upcoming visit in consideration of Armenia’s decision to join the Customs Union and the processes that happened following the last visit in December 2012? Will Sargsyan be able to pursue financial assistance?
-I don’t think we can have high expectations. The agenda of Armenian-American bilateral economic relations has been focused on US assistance during the past fifteen years. The assistance through the traditional aids channels is reducing year by year, and the assistance through the Millennium Challenges project is halted. Besides this assistance, Armenia has tried to develop bilateral relations for the purpose of free trade, exclusion of double taxation, etc. Armenia’s efforts in law and agreements do not bear fruit yet due to reasons such as systematic failures in Armenia’s economy, corruption, poor protection of property rights, monopolies, law and implementation. These shortcomings do not generate interest for investment by American businesspeople. If businesses are not interested, do not present their interests at the Congress and White House, the efforts of the diaspora and Armenian government are not enough.
In order to develop strong economic relations with the United States, Armenia should focus on several major areas such as nuclear energy, space/satellite research and revival of aviation. Armenia could have a good opportunity to work with the United States to build a new nuclear reactor and train specialists with possible financing from the US. It was also possible to launch a project for joint communication satellite project. These are realistic goals as the parties have negotiated during the past 15 years. There have been negotiations with large American corporations but Armenia escaped from major initiatives with Americans.
I think the reason was psychological complexes as Armenians did not want to make Russians upset. As a result of such policy, no major American projects have been implemented in Armenia. There are some projects in IT and initiatives by diasporans, but this is not enough. After Armenia’s decision to join the Customs Union it will be even more difficult as I think Armenia will lose its independence for implementing a foreign economic policy. Such decisions will be made in Moscow, and Armenia will follow instructions received from Moscow. Thus, I don’t see any sector where Armenia could reach more than it has now.
-After September 3rd the US Ambassador to Armenia John Heffern said it was Armenia’s decision to choose its foreign policy, there was nothing that would stop Armenia to reform its vital sectors, and the US would continue supporting reforms. What will change in the relations between Armenia and the United States?
-It is Armenia’s reluctance that relations with the United States are not developed to its full potential. Armenia has been escaping from any major strategic projects with the US. As Ambassador Heffern said, the US would continue supporting reforms in Armenia, thus future cooperation will be also about those reforms.
-Following the announcement on September 3rd statements from Europe were strict, however later Europeans started making milder statements. What are the prospects of cooperation with Europe in the future?
-Relations with Europe will improve as much as Armenia will make real changes and development, instead of declarative announcements. Unfortunately Armenia is depriving itself of the opportunity for European integration and stays under the influence of Russia. This means Armenia cannot expect the full benefits of the Association Agreement. On the other Hand, Armenia has announced that will develop relations with Europe as much as they do not contradict the relations with Russia. It is about Armenia’s decision because it is Armenia that limits its potential.
-There is an opinion, according to which it was not Armenia’s decision, but the decision of the West and Russia to integrate Armenia with the Customs Union. What do you think about this?
-I would not even want to comment on that because it is nonsense.
-What is the geopolitical prospective for the future after the Middle East crisis and failed football diplomacy with Turkey?
-Nothing will have more impact on Armenia’s strategic future as the relations between Iran and the US. Armenia should maintain independence to be able to benefit from improved relations between Iran and the US instead of banning itself like it did with Europe. If the situation becomes stable in Syria and relations between Iran and the US normalize, the situation in the region will be positive and there will be an opportunity to develop relations with Turkey. Armenia is more an observer in these processes than a stakeholder. If this continues, Armenia will isolate itself even more. Armenia should involve in regional processes more actively and pursue a goal of societal revival and economic modernization in the framework of regional and European integration, and on the basis of bilateral and mutually beneficial networks.
By Gayane Khachatryan
