Why is the Prime Minister whistling?

Besides the seat belts and a few other initiatives Tigran Sargsyan might perhaps be remembered for something else as well. He imported the word “thesis” in our daily vocabularies and started to actively use it.

During these long and tough years we have heard all kinds of “theses” from the Prime Minister on how to overcome the crisis, economic growth, etc. We had the occasion to listen to simultaneously five theses on Saturday. He Prime Minister presented five theses about the perks of joining the Customs Union. But why do we write the word thesis I quotation marks?

The reason is that although the Prime Minister calls them theses but in the classic meaning those are not theses. Thesis is something that is proved and substantiated. But the majority of the theses of the Prime Minister cannot be proved at all. Others are attempted to be substantiated in an insufficient manner. And so what new theses did the Premier bring up? Thesis number 1: “Nobody has ever invited us to the Customs Union.” As substantiation to this statement the Prime Minister mentioned if it was so they could have done it three years ago.

But perhaps they did so three years back but it wasn’t publicized. In general, as we know the Customs Union is not a dying structure and they can invite at any moment. By the way under the same thesis the Prime Minister mentions, “We were never against the membership to the Customs Union.

We had a general understanding of the Union and we knew that the absence of the common border was a serious obstacle for the membership to the Union.” It is not clear if there was no pressure to become a member of the Union, what was the whole debate about? Let us also add that besides the absence of a common border Tigran Sargsyan was also speaking about customs fees. “The problem is not only the absence of a common border. The peculiarity of Armenia is that its economic system is very different from the requirements of the Customs Union. The majority of member states have immense energy resources. In general, at the Customs Union the level of customs fees is twice as high as of Armenia,” said Sargsyan during his interview to Moskovskie Novosti. Sargsyan didn’t mention this in any of his theses. Let’s move forward. Thesis 2: “No one has ever pressured on Armenia to become a member of the Customs Union.” Where is the evidence of this claim? This is a thesis and it should have evidence and be substantiated. Of course, if our government understands pressure the targeting of the Russian ballistic rockets in the direction of Armenia, indeed there was no such thing. But as it’s known in the civilized world pressure is demonstrated in a more diplomatic way. For example, by selling Smerch rockets to Azerbaijan, deporting immigrants, Karabakh conflict, etc.

In the same thesis Sargsyan reminds, “This was our calculated and balanced approach, which we believe stems from the interests of the Armenian nation. We do realize that this is an extremely important decision and will have its consequences for 20 years to come.” Here it is unclear who Sargsyan means by saying “our.” As of the “balanced approach and calculations” let’s remember that the membership of Armenia was first proclaimed by the Russian Premier Dmitry Medvedev in June of the current year during the meeting with Tigran Sargsyan. “Armenia wishes to become a member of this Union and we signify this. We just need to find the right format for this cooperation,” said the Russian Premier.

While some people were waiting whether Tigran Sargsyan would oppose Medvedev’s statement Sargsyan presented the second surprise by stating that Yerevan’s standpoint is clear and there is no doubt about that. It means Russia neither pressed on us nor invited. Instead of us it made a decision and made us face the reality. Let’s move forward. The “Third Thesis” of Sargsyan is that membership to the Union is a multi-factor phenomenon and there might be various opinions about that. “But one thing is clear. We should review this in the whole specter of Russian-Armenian relations.” If we open the parenthesis then by doing so the Premier wishes to say that it is not only the economic interest. There is also the Karabakh conflict and many other matters. It means that this is a hint about the abovementioned pressure methods but we will not speak about that. All this takes its place in the fourth thesis of the Prime Minister.

According to Sargsyan the integration processes within the Union create a new economic environment and if Armenia stayed away from these processes the country would have been isolated from its strategic partner in many sectors. “It was more expedient for us to be members of this Union as well, which would enable us to fully realize the potential that exists between the strategic partners,” said Sargsyan.

This is perhaps the most unrealistic thesis because till now there are no calculations why this decision was the most expedient. This was done in the case when the conditions of neither the Association agreement nor the Customs Union were publicized. Also, pay attention that Tigran Sargsyan is speaking in the past tense and not present. And the impression is that we have already entered the Customs union and there is no turning back and we are only doing a flashback. But the package should still be elaborated and ratified by the NA. And finally comes the fifth thesis of the Prime Minister. By this thesis Sargsyan is trying to persuade us that the complementary policy is possible. “We have an understanding that the integration process to the Customs Union and the expansion of relations with the EU do not conflict each other.

They complement each other.” Tigran Sargsyan said that the Russian colleagues have a clear standpoint. They are really interested that Armenia develops its ties with the EU. In the meantime let’s remember that both the Russians (e.g. Zatulin, Glazev and others) and the Europeans have numerously pointed out that Armenia needs to pick only one of the poles – either left or right. The best we can do is move to the right by rarely looking to the left direction. In a word, the five theses of Tigran Sargsyan do no answer any of the questions but even more increase their number. But the Prime Minister himself thinks that the theses should close the mouths of all opponents and we keeps playing his guitar and whistling. But whistling is a less threatening occupation than singing. And this can be considered the sixth thesis.

By Babken Tunyan