Turkey is knocking at a neighbor’s door again
The Turkish foreign minister Ahmed Davutoglu is visiting Armenia. The visit is planned on December 12th. People make assumptions about Davotoglu’s visit because after his meeting with the Azeri foreign minister on December 5th in Ukraine’s Kiev he had a long private conversation with the Azeri foreign minister Elmar Mamediarov. Maybe Azerbaijan tried to make sure that Armenian-Turkish relations will not develop in a manner that would be against Azerbaijan’s interests. Azerbaijan wants Turkey to open the border of Armenia if lands are not given to them. Since 1993 Turkey has claimed that the border would be opened in case if Armenia forfeited the issue of the genocide recognition. In addition to this, Turkey also demands from Armenia to re-affirm the agreements of Moscow and Kars, 1921, establishing the border that currently separates Armenia from Turkey.
Official Yerevan does not speak about the real purpose of Davutoglu’s visit. Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan told the society that they should not try to find out the purposes and possible outcomes of negotiations in advance. Certainly it is an accepted diplomatic norm that parties should inform their people about outcomes of negotiations briefly, especially after the negotiations are over. However, as we represent the interests of the society but not official Yerevan, which from time to time are totally different, we will discuss the possible outcomes of negotiations that have not taken place yet.
Russian president Putin’s visit to Armenia and his statement saying that Russia does not intend to leave from our region means that relations between Armenia and Turkey should be based on the agreements of Moscow and Kars. This closes the issue of territorial claim.
Now the remaining issues are the Armenian and Azeri conflict, as well as minor economic issues that have put Armenia in a net. We will discuss some of those issues. Russia is not going to invest tens of millions dollars in a railway, which will not be linked with Turkey. For Russia it will be more profitable to organize the export of the Caspian oil and gas through a pipe passing through Armenia rather than going through the underwater of Black Sea. Of course it is desirable that Turkey does not support Azerbaijan and relies on its economic interests only. However, it is evident that Turkey is not going to give up on the issue of Karabakh even if Armenia recognizes the agreements of Kars and Moscow, as well as the border with Turkey, and refuses any territorial claims from Turkey. In fact the prospect of refusing the recognition of the genocide and legal outcomes stemming out of it is being legalized. Even if official Yerevan wants the recognition only and does not claim any legal outcomes, the question is that why this happened because this is unprecedented in the history. Armenian officials should rethink their policy as they have made the issue of the genocide a topic of conference tours. The absence of an official policy for the recognition of the genocide on the part of official Yerevan means that Turkey does not have much to worry about.
It is already an established fact that the Armenian genocide issue has been given to different committees and small groups of conferences for discussion. The only people that are guilty in this are official Yerevan and their followers. The only pillar that still stands firm is Karabakh. This is why Ahmed Davutoglu is knocking at his neighbor’s door again.
By Tigran Sarukhanyan
PhD of History
