Armenia’s unique and last chance

While the Armenian political parties have focused their attention to the resignation of the government and the president and the authorities are doing their best to pass the new law on pensions seemingly the processes taking place in the world are approaching Armenia. On the surface, Armenia got so isolated from the rest of the world that we think nothing worse can happen to us. We think we cannot be facing a worse political turnout for us. But sometimes the political circumstances, especially the foreign political ones may become very favorable to us from being negative. The benefit of these political factors depends on the skills and wit of decision makers, their ability to make diversified decisions and serve these factors on our behalf.

Psychology of sovereignty

Armenia in the current situation is facing a very similar situation and has a very big potential of appearing in a very great plight under these circumstances. This situation has been created as a result of west-Iran friendly relations, the events in Ukraine and as a result of that the changing of Russia-west relations. Having announced about Armenia’s determination to join the Customs Union, Armenia has deprived itself from all means of participating in any international and world processes and developments. Judging from the activities of the majority of political parties and actors, they seemingly have stopped being interested in foreign politics and processes in general and they are mostly engaged in internal political developments.

At any rate, from the activities of governmental and opposition elites we have the impression that they have got deprived of the ability to be engaged in foreign politics at least psychologically. We may call this loss of sovereignty, which was finally recorded by the statement of September 3. Most probably, the deflection from power and sovereignty took place much sooner and on September 3 it only acquired formal formulation. Sovereignty is not only realization of individual steps but first of all the ability of being sovereign. As we mentioned, both the government and opposition have lost the sense of controlling it. Or perhaps they have never had that. It means that currently Armenia governed by people, who even at the psychological level refuse to be engaged in foreign politics. This became especially evident after the statement of the Armenian president on September 3 to join the Customs Union. And definitely whatever decision is made in Armenia it goes through the prism of the Customs Union.

Turn the irreversible

Unlike our government and opposition, the rest of the world still does consider Armenia among the dying states and still continue to consider it a subject of international and regional processes. Indeed they are doing this not on behalf of Armenia but their own interests. The evidence of that are the planned visits of a few world leaders to Armenia. In the near future the president of Iran Hassan Rohany will visit Armenia to speak about their improvement relations with the west. This was publicized by the Iranian ambassador to Armenia Mohammad Reisy. It is obvious that this is not going to be a regular visit to Armenia aimed at strengthening relations between the two countries. It is going to be full of promises and benefits for Armenia. Under the current situation the president of Iran should have a concrete diplomatic purpose when visiting any country. He must have a weighty reason to come to Armenia during this important period.

It is not ruled out that Iran might have chain relations and goals connected with the west while paying a visit to Armenia. We should also add to this the speedy political developments and processes taking place in the world in light of the Ukrainian uprising. The possible changes in the relations between Russia and Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan may become serious factors for the key players in our region. With the influence of this and other factors that created the current political situation in the region the visit of the Iranian president of Armenia contains more important reasons than what those would be in other more peaceful situations. It is more than clear that in a diplomatic language Iran has certain expectations from Armenia, which can also objectively stem from the interests of Armenia. If the terms of the visit of the Iranian president to Armenia are not clarified then we know for sure that another key international player, the president of France Francois Holande will be visiting Armenia in the second half of May. According to yet non-confirmed official information, Holande’s visit will have a status of an official visit, which as it’s known is a high norm of relations between two states. Nonetheless, it is understandable that Holande will visit Armenia not only as a president of France but also as a key player of the EU and in the meantime one of the co-chair states of the Minsk Group. After the refusal of Armenia to join the Association Agreement, the visit of the French president to Armenia means that the EU hasn’t ruled out its hopes and expectations from Armenia. If we guide ourselves by the abovementioned simple and non-diplomatic formulation, then not only France but also EU expects something from Armenia. For that purpose the French president is visiting Armenia. If we add to this rumors that by the end of the year US State Secretary John Kerry is planning to visit Armenia, which was stated by the US Ambassador to Armenia John Haffern, then the picture becomes more clear. Moreover, after the visits of the presidents of Iran and France the end of the year visit of Kerry should as a matter of fact become conclusive political cycle and perhaps serve as a beginning of new developments.

Time to become serious

Even though the Armenian government has surrendered to Russia, Armenia has not lost its geopolitical importance, and maybe gained even more importance. The world in general and separate geopolitical players have expectations from Armenia.

This means that Armenia can develop conditions in relations with those countries. Will it be through solving the problems related to Karabakh conflict or relations with Turkey, or through diversification of Armenia’s energetic and military dependence? These are very subtle issues.

The main question is that whether the Armenian authorities can go out of this situation without losing anything, or will they act as a country that is not sovereign or independent from Moscow.

We can give everything to Russia but not the last opportunity of our statehood. Maybe this is Armenia’s last and only chance.

By Garnik Gevorgyan