Amanda Paul: Armenia’s membership to the Customs Union could clearly be put off

Amanda Paul: the geopolitical and foreign policy analyst at «European Policy Centre» in Brussels, made comments on our questions concerning the Armenia-EU relations and Armenia’s future in the Customs/Eurasian Economic Union project.

– The spokesperson to HR/VP Catherine Ashton told in the interview with «168 Zham», that «despite not being able to pursue the Association Agreement including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (AA/DCFTA), the EU is ready to take forward not only the political side of its relations with Armenia, but also its trade relationship». What does this mean? Can Armenia sign any agreement with the EU in the near future and what kind of document can it be? 

– Despite the fact that Armenia is moving ahead with joining the Customs Union, Yerevan still wants to have a relationship with the EU.  Still what exactly this relationship will amount to remains to be seen and, given the increased hold that Moscow now has over the country, Russia will be sure to scrutinize every move very carefully.

It is clear now that the EU cannot have a «one size fits all» approach to the Eastern Partnership states as there are differences over what each partner wants from the EU.  Hence relations between the EU and each state need be specifically crafted, although clearly keeping at the heart the EU’s more for more approach. In the case of Armenia it could be possible have a sort of  an «Association Agreement-Light» type of deal.  This could not only be based on the political side of relations but also possibly include some economic sectoral agreements, although probably very limited.

– Do you think this perspective is connected with the present unclear situation around the Customs/Eurasian Union? It was announced in Minsk on April 29, that Armenia will sign the Customs Union agreement on June 1, although many analysts in Armenia are sceptic in this term: they say Armenia will not enter Customs Union this summer. And it seems like Belarus and Kazakhstan aren’t very happy to accept Armenia. What is your opinion about all this? Is it possible that Armenia cannot become a member of Customs Union?

– Entering the Customs Union represents something of a headache. There are obstacles. Lack of common border with any of the other Customs Union members: Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan;  neither Kazakhstan nor Belarus are particularly happy about having to extend the preferential terms needed to secure Armenian membership; the process require regulatory, legislative and possibly even constitutional changes.  And ultimately there will be no real economic advantage to Armenia’s membership. Therefore membership could clearly be put off.

By Aram Sargsyan