Where would Putin Shift Tension? To Donbass or to Karabakh?
Unexpected decision by Vladimir Putin, RF President, to restrict air attack in the Middle East is being actively circulated in international media.
Russian experts assure that it successively accomplished its mission in Syria, and Western experts don’t trust manifestations of a good will and allegations by Russia’s president, and that he is trying to pave a way for political settlement of Syrian conflict, and new surprises by Putin’s foreign policy should be expected. Some of them are sure that Putin “Tried to change Syria by the Ukraine, with the perspective to strengthen its presence in Donbass,” being sure that tension will be moved to other zones of conflict, in particular, to Donbass.
Alexander Rahr, member of International Discussion Club Valdai, German analyst, in an interview with 168.am commenting on RF president Vladimir Putin’s resolution on withdrawal of its considerable contingent from the Middle East and its possible implications, noted that, basically, Russia took that step as it performed its main mission in Syria.
However, in his conviction, it’s hard to anticipate what instigated Russia to take that step. Rahr also clarified that Russia doesn’t completely “lay down its arms” in Syria, and only partially withdraws its troops.
“My opinion is the following—Assad is standing on a strong grounding, so strong that it can solve issues of the Islamic State through the other contingent in Syria, thus, under this condition, it’s senseless to continue Russia’s actions in Syria, that brings forward a range of issues. Although I don’t think Russia’s this step will weaken West-Russia tension,” Rahr said. The latter isn’t sure that the decision will boost Syrian political settlement, assured by Russian experts.
“Although tension has been moved from Syria to Libya, which inspires confidence that situation will be settled in Syria soon, or current tension will essentially weaken,” German politician said. The latter doesn’t share allegations by his partners that unexpected steps should be expected from Russia’s president, as, however, Syria is in the center of attention, and Russia spent serious means in Syria, thus it can’t at once abandon from its role in that zone. According to Rahr, current situation in Donbass will be maintained.
In line with other conflicts, speaking of NKR issue and comments, that Russia will try to activate in NK as well, member of Valdai Club said Russia faces other issues, thus it won’t prefer to change its former tactics. “Despite serious disagreements, the USA, Russia and France act rather accorded in this zone, not wanting to complicate the situation. This is what the co-chairs strive to reach to, as the parties aren’t particularly interested in settlement of the conflict. Efforts of co-chairs, in particular, those of the USA, show that there is inclination to settle the conflict, however, perceptions of settlement ways among the parties and intermediaries are different, which makes the settlement impossible,” Rahr noticed.
To the question what may be expected from Aliyev-Sargsyan forthcoming meeting to be held under patronage of the USA, he replied that usually after likewise meetings, he doesn’t have serious expectations. “The most crucial decisions are made not during such meetings. However, I’m sure that the meeting will positively impact the negotiation process. Maybe the USA will try to convince the parties agree on certain issue or principle,” Alexander Rahr said. However, in the latter’s conviction, declination possibility is zero on account of seriousness and scales of international issues.
By Araks Martirosyan
