“Attack on Karabakh if Desired, may Be Perceived as Aggression against CSTO Member Country Armenia”
After the four-day unleashed war on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, Serzh Sargsyan, RA president, appeared with a few noteworthy statements, in meetings with Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany, and Dmitri Medvedev, RF Prime Minister in Yerevan, criticizing Russia’s policy of selling arms to Azerbaijan. At the same time, the president stated that Armenia isn’t against deploying peacekeeping mission in the Line of Contact of Nagorno-Karabakh, in case when in an interview with TASS Sergey Lavrov, RF MFA, stated that Russia has proposals on peaceful settlement of NK conflict, parallel to OSCE Minsk Group process, and Vahram Baghdasaryan, Head of RPA faction, didn’t deny the proposal of deploying of a peacekeeping mission, about which, Armenia’s authorities, in his words, aren’t enthusiastic enough.
“168 Hours” touched upon these issues with Alexey Malashenko, member of the Scientific Council of the Moscow Carnegie Center, Chairman of the Religion, Society and Security Program.
–Mr. Malashenko, the four-day fighting on NK conflict zone is over, however, the Line of Contact isn’t calm yet, and sharp bilateral statements still continue, which doesn’t exclude another outbreak. To your mind, what has happened and by which external “trace”?
–Principally, I wasn’t expecting a fierce outbreak on the Line of Contact of Nagorno-Karabakh. What we edified before—shooting and tension—were quite typical under such regional conflict. However, recent extension and tension of military operations surprised and bothered not only me, but the whole world, as well, on account of present-day geo-political hotbeds, in any case, it seemed that possibility is secondary from the standpoint of importance and threats.
However, likewise development didn’t occur. In any case, no matter how dangerous it was, and the threat is still existent, I consider, there will be no war, as there won’t be winners in this war, neither side is interested in victory, war won’t be puzzling out of Karabakh conflict and will only cause losses. That is, this is a routine, full of likewise military complicated implications. Naturally, we’ll learn the truth, when historical books will be written on this years later. I have impression there was an external factor, about which you posed the question, i.e. regarding the outbreak Russia-Turkey tense relations were essential.
This was quite an influential factor, and I consider, Turks and only them, played a provocative role, and from my standpoint, this war is full of negative implications for Russia.
– However, arms selling supposes arms using, which, in its turn, instigates war. Don’t they realize this in Russia, that it’s full of negative implications for them?
–In fact, Russia’s condition is not that easy, as the latter has always played the role of a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and it turns out, that this mediation wasn’t able to prevent recent military operations. Russia’s condition is very complicated, as its role, as a mediator, has unequivocally dropped. Besides that, being a mediator in a condition, when Crimea was annexed to Russia, is complicated though, i.e. what kind of a mediator you may be, when you function such deals for yourself.
If we add conflict with Georgia to this, also Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it turns out, that all this isn’t so beneficial to Russia, as a mediator. Secondly, under current condition, if military operations continued and turned into wide-scale actions, then, Russia would need acting in favor of any of the sides.
Let that be non-official, in any case, such a need would emerge. Now, judge for yourself, Russia can’t leave Armenia due to a range of reasons, it’s doesn’t even need any proof, but frankly appearing against Azerbaijan, besides the existent issues, would mean worsening of relations with post-Soviet Turks living in Russia, in case, when Russia’s Turks were rather disappointed with Russia-Turkey worsening, and they couldn’t understand, what it happened, they haven’t digested it yet.
Not speaking of Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan andUzbekistan, which due to ethnic, cultural similarities stand next to Azerbaijan, not for the reason that they dislike Armenians, but they’re close to Azeris with culture and traditions. This is a crucial issue for Russia, when tension is already existent.
–There is an Armenian community in Russia, which, like Armenia, is bothered with Russia’s present-day policy, isn’t this taken into account? Isn’t this a factor?
–Of course, it’s a factor, and not only, Russia and Armenia are tied by lots of threads, and Russia’s authorities realize it, simply the issue of worsening ties with Turkish communities is available as well, this isn’t a factor of less importance. To complete answer to the previous question, let me say, that another factor is available as well: imagine war is resumed, nobody believes it, however, let’s imagine that in that case issue of accord reached with CSTO will be set forward.
On the one hand, Karabakh is introduced as a part of Azerbaijan on maps, however, de facto attack on Karabakh, if desired, may be perceived as aggression against Armenia, in this case, how should CSTO and Kazakhstan act? It’s already and absurd, isn’t it? This can’t occur, if there is CSTO, it’s close to Armenia and not Azerbaijan. Thanks Goodness, this also didn’t happen, if you remember, on the very first day of the conflict statement by Nikolay Bordyuzha, didn’t make us wait, which means it threatened Azerbaijan to remind about such an organization. Thus, in my opinion, there are many Russian issues in this conflict. Again by Russia’s mediation, military operations have been suspended, but this was the rare case, when big problems might have emerged, and moreover, Azerbaijan felt Turkey on its back, which is clear and encouraging. God forbid, if another outbreak is recorded, if these bloody episodes will repeat with some frequency, people will suffer more; when we read, we see—population suffers the first.
–Before leaving for Baku, Sergey Lavrov, RF MFA, gave an interview to TASS, stating that parallel to OSCE MG mediation efforts, Russia also has other proposals for the sides, and they are currently under discussion, which refer return of territories around Karabakh, as well as deploying of a peacekeeping mission in NK, on which Serzh Sargsyan expressed his standpoint, stating the Armenian side isn’t against. On account of regional tension, and engagement of the West in the process, how realizable are these proposals, especially when we speak of Russian forces?
–Of course, this is a good offer, but it’s difficult to say how it’ll be implemented in practice. Russian military base has already been deployed in the territory of Armenia. Besides, it’s a high risk. Let’s imagine for a while, if such forces are deployed, they’ll be regarded as forces in favor of Armenia, that is to say, it won’t be a simple peacekeeping mission. I don’t know how Azerbaijan will react to his. Moreover, Turkey, as those forces will be regarded by the world as forces, which first and foremost, protect and boost Russian interests. I have already mentioned what background is available around Russia—Donbass, Russia—Georgia war, Russian peacekeeping missions are becoming more and in all countries they pursue particular interests.
– However, it’s a proposal made by Russia.
–Nothing should be excluded for the time being, but I consider less possible that Azerbaijan will agree on this proposal, moreover, Turkey will criticize it, and Russia doesn’t want any tension.
–Mr. Malashenko, RA president yesterday introduced concerns of the Armenian community to Dmitri Medvedev, RF Prime Minister, on Russia-Azerbaijan arms deals, stating Russian weaponry has shot on Armenian border guards. According to you, what should current Russia’s authorities should and will do, on account of these deep concerns, the perspective for Armenia-Russia worsening situations, and on account of the fact, that Armenia’s authorities recently followed Russian political decisions even on account of their authority?
–Russia will continue its policy the way it used to, and it’s quite simple, as provision of weaponry to the conflicting parties, no matter how ridiculous it may sound, it’s the factor of Russia’s mediation, which means, that Russia isn’t interested in victory of any of the sides. That is, arms selling will proceed, although Azerbaijan seems not to pay serious amounts, but it’s not important here, thus under this condition, I understand both Sargsyan and Putin, as each of them is right from his standpoint. On the one hand, the situation is absurd, however, we know other examples as well, when other countries provided military equipment both to us and to you. I don’t see a big problem here, but, surely, this isn’t well perceived, which I also realize, that Russia will continue providing weaponry to both sides, and any of them will draw its conclusions for that, being discontent of the situation, but this is what we have now. Despite complaints, Russia won’t change it, as other interests are available here as well.
By Araks Martirosyan
