Russia already in a Trap
Interview with Denis Dvornikov, member of Russian Association of International Law, PhD in Legal Sciences.
– Mr. Dvornikov, a range of calls on recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic were heard at the special discussion on Karabakh issue in the European Parliament. Are European countries entitled to make such a decision and recognize NKR?
– Theoretically, yes, however, it depends on their so-called political will. Theoretically everything is possible, everyone can recognize NKR, including Baku. But the point is in their motivation. For this, it’s necessary to follow the developments.
– Is there a political will? Did Azerbaijan’s military aggression contribute to its originating?
–The point is, it’ll be somewhat strange for some countries to recognize Artsakh, prior to the Republic of Armenia. For this it’s necessary not to imagine recognition, but first and foremost, centralize at the main issue—recognition of Artsakh by Armenia. Why up to now this step hasn’t been taken? I think, the public should fairly ask this question. I’m sure RA National Assembly will recognize it without any delay.
– They claim in Armenia, it’s not the time; if Armenia recognizes Artsakh, it should leave the negotiation table.
– In that case, logically, how should we expect recognition of Artsakh from other states? I consider, recent occurrences, those four days of war resumption showed, that Armenia has total grounds for that. You see, the situation has changed, there is “life before April 1-5” and “life after April 1-5.” And while we are speaking now, separate local shootings continue on Nagorno-Karabakh—Azerbaijan Line of Contact, and even likewise shooting is an additional reason for Artsakh recognition. In any case, I’m sure, that the international community would understand it.
–In your opinion, if Armenia recognizes the independence of Karabakh, won’t Russia be entrapped? Armenia is a CSTO member and Russia will be obliged to defend borders of Karabakh as well.
– Russia has already appeared in a trap, and faces an extreme uncomfortable situation. In fact, recognition of Artsakh by Armenia will simply be a nuance, which will be of less importance, than public statement on Azerbaijani arms selling. Although, in case of a strong desire, that statement may be explained by the fact that Russia is extremely afraid to lose comparatively sane regime in Azerbaijan, with whom at least one may speak in the same language, as it’s clear, after Aliyev, there will be quite different, more taciturn young people.
– Do you think so? Maybe it would be better and, finally, a situation will be changed in Azerbaijan to a positive direction?
– I’m not sure, throughout the last 20 years the level of political thinking of the population has gone down so much, that any ideology may be given now, especially an aggressive one, and it’ll be adopted. Azerbaijan is a post-Soviet state, and after military propaganda, extremist ideologies will be rather easily implemented there, which we currently observe both in Syria and Iraq, as well as in Turkey. Moreover, when a kind friend like neighboring Turkey is existent, which will gladly share with its most extremist followers with Azerbaijan.
– If Armenia recognizes Karabakh’s independence, to your mind, what disposition will Russia have, and is it possible that the latter recognizes independence of Nagorno-Karabakh?
– Russia will give additional stimuli to return Nagorno-Karabakh peaceful settlement to the negotiation table, as Artsakh should authentically be presented at negotiations. Currently its structure has completely been distorted, as we deal with a conflict between Azerbaijan and Karabakh, and the latter should be presented on negotiation platform, and have its own voice. It’ll improve the situation and not complicate it.
– However, Azerbaijan categorically refuses to sit at the negotiation table with Nagorno-Karabakh?
– Azerbaijan implements artillery on the Line of Contact, and in this case, the international community, Russia and all those engaged with the process, should convince Baku, that after this incident, which totally discredited Azerbaijan, anyway, it’s worth sitting at the negotiation table with NKR. It’s an issue of diplomacy, of impact tools, which, surely, are available, moreover, after such curtsey, implemented via arms selling, and I consider, Azerbaijan doesn’t have other arguments, all conditions set by him were compromised and a blind eye was turned on all the atrocities.
The international community can’t be a morality donor and ignore the facts, unacceptable in the civilized world. For that very reason Azerbaijan doesn’t have arguments, moreover, at least during this escalation, obviously, the truth is one Armenia’s side. That is, there is grounding, which should be implemented.
– The Armenian side is preparing a package of military crime and atrocities, to submit to the international tribunal. In your opinion, what verdict may be expected, and in general, what will it give?
–It’s a rather crucial step, at least in memory of those tortured and mutilated people, for the sake of their families, friends and all the people in the world, who bothered, sympathized and watched those barbaric cadres. Firstly, it’s necessary to give moral assessment to those atrocities. Secondly, it’s important from the viewpoint of international policy and international law, i.e. calling things by their right names. At least, scrutinized investigation of all incidents should be implemented, and this, of course, is another argument in favor of the Armenian side.
–And what implication will it have for Azerbaijan? What practical steps will follow it?
–At least, it’ll complicate its disposition in negotiations. Such atrocity is difficult to combine with the desire of peaceful settlement. Even if declarative documents, formula will be adopted, condemning those activities, I think, it will already be a good outcome. Unfortunately, as we see, under such complicated situation, international powers and actors refrain from imposing sanctions. However, I think, if the declaration is available, if investigation is launched, large international and non-governmental organizations will appear with assessments, and it’ll be fair and right, at least it’ll help to somehow ease the grief of those, losing their relatives and at least, will pass the feeling of justice. It’s quite important.
By Gayane Khachatryan
