Armenian Nation should Get out of Political and Psychological Trap, otherwise the Situation in the Country will Outbreak: Vitaly Portnikov
Interview with Vitaly Portnikov, Ukrainian analyst.
Mr. Portnikov, yesterday hot phase of the crisis, which lasted for two weeks, is over, when members of “Sasna Tsrer” armed group decided to put down the weapons to avoid bloodshed. In your opinion, why such radical shift has been recorded in Yerevan? What conclusions should the authorities, the opposition and the society draw?
I stand my viewpoint that the developments in the whole post-Soviet area should be perceived under the logic of crisis. This, unfortunately, will inevitably lead to more critical implications, than what we edify in Yerevan these days.
The crisis of economic and political possibilities in Ukraine ended with Maidan, shift of one power to the other, as the field of political competition hasn’t been cleared yet. The following snapshot has been developed in Ukraine: big opposition was maintained in Rada, protests were a rather acting tool. Through these two tools Ukraine’s economic and political crisis has been overcome.
Throughout recent years in Armenia almost everything was done not only that the authorities became an alternative, everything possible was done that Parliamentary opposition was marginalized. Thus, serious contestant to the authorities among the opposition isn’t observed.
The worst, which was done, was again done to marginalize protest actions in the streets. It’s obvious to the society that the opposition, which organizes protests, won’t initiate serious processes, but will use those protests exclusively for their own political rating, as a tool of political trade with the authorities.
Thus, these two important tools in Armenia—Parliamentary opposition, protest initiatives are no more enjoying the trust of the society. People think nothing is possible to change with their help. This atmosphere in Armenia led to inevitable radicalization of protest moods. In this case this was a natural development.
What was the role of the April war in Karabakh in these moods, as well as the talks, that maybe under Russia’s pressure Armenia will agree on withdrawal of territories?
Obviously radicalization was the implication of recent developments on Karabakh front. If formerly it seemed that stability should be maintained and they should agree on everything what Russia will dictate, as the latter is the only guarantor of the status quo in Karabakh, then presently it’s already clear that it’s not a guarantee at all, and not any friendly relation with Russia, any dependency from Russia will guarantee that the situation will be maintained in its present condition in the future as well. I’d even say that the Armenian nation pushed itself to political and psychological trap, and not today. They need to go out of this trap.
How? By the way, the group leader stated that their fight is against decolonization.
I agree that dependency from Russia should be decreased, but it’s impossible to reduce that dependency without NK conflict settlement and finding proper variant in relations with neighboring countries. In fact, Armenia needs not Russia’s support but security guarantees, which all its neighboring countries may give, both Georgia and Iran, and Turkey and Azerbaijan. Without such guarantees the situation in the country will continue and will lead to more and more radicalization of the situation.
In that case instead of Armenia we’ll see a Baltic country competing with groups. This is rather dangerous, as Armenian state hasn’t been established for that. However, let me mention once again that it’s impossible to obtain such guarantees without NK issue settlement. On the one hand, Armenia’s radical figures will accuse Russia, that they intend to settle NK conflict, and won’t agree on the withdrawal at least of a part of the territories, and on the other hand, it’s impossible to reduce dependency from Russia without NK conflict settlement. To settle that dilemma, they should return to political means of putting forward issues, it’s necessary, that the Armenian society realized that only political dialogue in the Parliament, only about what’s going on in the country, perception, that guarantees haven’t obtained neither from Russia, nor even from the USA, as we saw in Ukraine the essence of security guarantees of the USA, Great Britain, when they took the Crimea, real security guarantees may be obtained only in case, when the denominator of the cooperation with the neighbors is found, which will become a guarantor for future Armenia.
I’d like to touch upon the variant, which Israel has shaped for itself. It has partnership relations with the USA, this is a correct direction from the perspective of security provision, but it’s not enough. With some of its partners Israel has agreements, and with other non-formal agreement on non-attack. This allows settling domestic policy issues, even not totally solving that of annexed territories. Presently discussions are launched on the destiny of those territories.
However, this isn’t a discussion, which ends with seizure of a police precinct, this is a discussion, which is being developed in the Parliament, on pages of media outlets. If this boiler isn’t opened for Armenia, unfortunately, sooner or later the situation will outbreak. Current situation proves the possibility of that outbreak.
In case of Turkey and Azerbaijan, even if the guarantees mentioned by you are obtained, only through withdrawal of territories, i.e. is this the price for conceding the districts around Karabakh, that Armenia should pay for its freedom and security?
I think Armenians have the right to discuss what to concede, and what not. In this regard polite, serious political dialogue, discussions should be launched. I have repeatedly stated that I don’t consider that the Republic of Armenia is the hostage of NK. I’d like that Armenians discussed it. These discussions will be possible and productive in case, when the authorities will enjoy the society’s trust. The authorities, who on the one hand, should maintain the state, on the other hand, don’t enjoy people’s trust, sooner or later it loses any position in protection of national interests. They should realize it.
By Araks Martirosyan
