Why does Russia Periodically Destabilize the Situation in the South Caucasus?
Interview with Mykhaylo Gonchar, head of Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI,” Ukrainian expert on energy issues.
Mr. Gonchar, the agreement on transportation of Iranian gas to Georgia through the territory of Armenia has been concluded. How will it be reflected in regional developments?
I’ll observe it as strengthening of the position of Iran in the field of energy, and first and foremost, in a trilateral format: Iran-Armenia-Georgia. It won’t have fundamental, great importance, as it refers rather small volumes, as internal gas market volumes of both Armenia and Georgia aren’t large. Besides, Armenian gas market belongs to Gazprom Armenia, the latter is Gazprom’s 100% subsidiary. For this reason I’m not sure, that Gazprom will create maximally beneficial regime, so that Iranian gas will take just half of the Armenian market.
I’m far from the idea, that Gazprom will function as a charitable organization, as until this year all its activities in Armenian market speak of the point, that its policy is rather sordid, i.e. it attempts to seize more money. Gazprom manipulatively states, that Armenia gets the cheapest gas, however, by saying “Armenia” one should understand Gazprom Armenia, which in internal market sells gas by double price.
Thus, the situation is, that they wouldn’t like to lose their incomes and for this reason I think, that currently Gazprom won’t agree that Armenia gets any gas, in particular, Iranian. And Georgia is another story, the situation is a bit different there, Georgia receives gas from Azerbaijan within Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum big gas program. If Iranian gas reaches Georgia, optimal diversified structure is being developed there, in case of which Russian gas won’t be dangerous for Georgia, it won’t provide the opportunity of political pressure, as at any moment it’ll be possible to substitute Russian gas with Azerbaijani and Iranian gas.
These days Iran’s Minister of Petroleum touched upon the fact that Ukraine and Iran agree to transit Iranian oil and gas to the EU.
As I remember it was first mentioned in 1992, and now it’s 2016.
But that time geo-political realities were different.
Yes, it’s clear in that period it wasn’t the most optimal beneficial atmosphere around Iran, but it’s not only this. It’s a different issue. During those days Ukrainian delegation was in Tehran, and for that very reason that project is being touched upon. There are no fundamental issues, but Gazprom was doing its best, when Armenia was reaching to an agreement on constructing a gas pipeline. Gazprom reached the diameter of the gas pipeline to the minimum. And today the existent gas pipeline both of Armenia and Georgia isn’t able to transport large volumes of gas, that would allow to successively implement that project. So that such project is economically beneficial, volume of gas transported through it should at least be 30 billion cubic meters.
Thus, totally new gas transportation system should be constructed for that through the territory of Georgia, the Black Sea. However, everybody knows the existent situation—strengthened militarization is in process, the Crimea is occupied by Russia, and naturally, Russia doesn’t need Iranian gas in Europe, as it’s a competitor like in Armenian or Georgian markets. And, probably, they’ll invest all the efforts to destabilize the situation in Georgia, Armenia, so that the project never became a reality.
Naturally, recent weeks’ developments near Erebuni, Khorenatsi, no matter they have internal roots, are conditioned by simply internal political struggle, or have external stimulants, in any case, it works and fits in Russian conception of destabilization of the situation on the way of potential, hypothetic pipelines transporting Iranian gas to Europe. Other issues technical or financial, may be easily settled for a project like that. However, the real issue is more global and deeper.
You stated years ago, that the empire of gas and energy wins democracy. Thus, can we say this expression is currently actual as well?
Yes, unfortunately, it’s actual, in particular, if we observe present Europe. I always say to my European partners why don’t they observe other possibilities of gas transportation to Europe, as they are existent and why everything circulates around Nord Stream 2, as Central Asian gas exists, which currently doesn’t have possibilities for total consumption, as Russia blocked transportation to Europe through its territory, there is a possibility to obtain gas from Turkmenistan and Iran, routes of which don’t pass through the territory of Russia, and they don’t refrain from Russian routes.
This also speaks of the fact, that conditionally said, Schroeder Effect is rather effective in Europe, i.e. there are a lot of politicians, who are ready to support Russian plans, naturally, not without expectations. That’s why we have such a situation, when for any other gas, in particular, in this case we are discussing Iranian gas, it’ll be difficult to overcome that obstacle and enter European market. Moreover, its main opponent is Iran’s ally, as Russia traditionally was supporting Iran, but those two countries with energy status are serious contestants, as in Iran gas reserves are not less, than in Russia, pursuant some assessments are a bit more. The same is regarding oil. Thus, they are contestants and presently, when Iran was unsanctioned and is starting to look around.
It also refers possible supply of Iranian oil to Central Europe market, which wasn’t formerly implemented. Of course, it should make Russia nervous, which should attempt to initiate something. And in this case it’ll be difficult to initiate something against Iran, and against other actors, which are necessary that the communication chain of perspective project worked, i.e. against Armenia, Georgia, here the toolset is known and existent. If Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan will finally come to an agreement around construction of Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, then issues will emerge in Azerbaijan as well. To be more proper, there is a general issue, which Russia has already tested. It refers April four-day war in Karabakh. It’s necessary to think how they should counteract.
Through which ways or means they can be counteracted?
It’s difficult to say anything, as rather different potential is available, if we compare Armenia-Russia or Georgia-Russia relations. Clear international cooperation is necessary, and, naturally, the European Union should be engaged, so that they paid attention not only to Russian plans, but on other projects as well. Naturally enough, it’s impossible to settle the issue on the spot, formats need to be systemized. I think the Iranian side is ready. Moreover, bigger tendency is existent to restore relations with Iran on the whole volume by the EU. I think we need to use it, I mean, creation of negotiation format through that channel, involve Europe and attempt to do anything. And firstly, to solve the South Caucasus security issues, so that Russia doesn’t think it’s its backyard in the south and can do everything it wants.
By Gayane Khachatryan
