Industrial Growth Rate has Slightly Accelerated
The National Statistical Service (NSS) issued detailed macroeconomic indices for 2016. Initial data, including, industry were published yet on July 20. And currently it’s possible not only to observe the indices of growth of separate fields, but also on account of which that growth was recorded.
It’s worth touching upon industry again, as we promised in our previous publications to develop the topic.
Industry of January-June 2016 provided production with the total amount of AMD 659.7 billion. As compared to the same period of the previous year, growth comprised 8.9%. As compared to January-May growth rate has slightly increased with 0.1 pp. At first glance it’s not bad, and PM Hovik Abrahamyan particularly highlighted this at the session on August 2.
Growth, however, has been recorded mainly on account of mining, and to be more exact—extraction of metal ore, more concretely, on account of volumes of extraction of copper concentrate.
Thus, the field of mining and exploitation of opencast mine in the period of January-May provided production of AMD 122.17 billion, AMD 12 billion of which is metal ore. As compared to the same period of the previous year, volume of production of mining has grown by 18.8%. To be more clear, output of copper concentrate grew by 31%, reaching from 140 000 tons to 192.6 thousand tons. It should also be mentioned that growth rate in the field of mining decreased in the period of January-May, thus, comprising 19.6%.
Manufacturing in the same period grew by 5.1%, production volume comprises AMD 394.5 billion. Here growth temp has accelerated, in the period of January-May it comprised 3.8%.
By the way, in the statement on governmental session a misprint was found in industrial indices. 18.8% growth in mining was introduced as 118.8%, and growth for manufacturing—105.1%. Apparently the index has been confused with the growth and that misprint hasn’t been corrected yet.
However, this is not so essential. More essential are anticipations, heard in mid-July regarding industry.
In particular, Artsvik Minasyan, RA Minister of Economy, told reporters on July 15 that besides official data, Ministry of Economy also implements internal monitoring and introduced some data from the results of that monitoring. Ministry of Economy on the basis of the semester recorded 10% growth for industry, however, 8.9% growth was observed. 20% growth was anticipated for mining, however, it reduced to 18.8%.
These are permissible deviations. However, regarding manufacturing anticipation and actual index differ greatly. Ministry of Economy throughout January-June was anticipating 14% industrial growth, however, actual growth comprised 5.1%. Moreover, at the moment of making anticipations it was known, that the growth of January-May comprised 3.8% and indescribable activeness should have been recorded, that 3.8% grew to 14%.
We provided clarification in our previous publications why deviation of the results of official statistics and monitoring is so big. NSS introduces the “visible” turnover submitted to the taxation body. And Ministry of Economy, besides those data, takes into consideration their own studies, quest results, i.e. it attempts to understand the snapshot close to the reality.
And that snapshot essentially differs from NSS numbers, which speaks of the fact that we have considerable shadow turnover in the field.
By Babken Tunyan
