Ongoing Developments More Escalate the Situation around Karabakh—Outbreak of Military Operations hasn’t been Neutralized: Alexander Rahr

“Threat of the outbreak of military operations in Karabakh hasn’t been neutralized,” Alexander Rahr, representative of Russian Valdai Discussion Club, German analyst, told 168.am reflecting to the developments in the South Caucasus.

In particular, touching upon the forthcoming Azerbaijan-Russia-Iran negotiations on International North–South Transport Corridor, the following day Putin-Erdogan meeting, Alexander Rahr stated that the region is entering a new integration stage. In his words, this will  help the region to more productively cooperate, which will provide the opportunity to overcome the challenges as well. However, according to the German analyst, the Armenian side won’t feel so comfortable as a result of implementation of those programs, as it’s ignored and Azerbaijan assumes a central role in those projects.

In his conviction Azerbaijan is highlighted from the perspective of Russia-Turkey relations as well. Alexander Rahr doesn’t share the viewpoints that Moscow will subordinate Yerevan’s interests on account of its close ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan. According to Rahr, Armenia isn’t less important for Russia, and under all the state of affairs the latter will attempt to keep balance in the region, maintaining its presence in Armenia and in Azerbaijan equally.

“However, it’s not excluded that these changes may become an instigation to destabilize the situation, which we edified in April. After the April war the sides failed to establish significant ceasefire, although presidential meeting has been launched. I don’t consider those agreements serious, as they agreed to increase only the number of observers, and it can’t be a considerable factor of influence.

This snapshot means that possibility of war outbreak in Karabakh is rather high, on account of Azerbaijan’s increasing role in the region, which will make it confident in NK conflict settlement process. The developments in Yerevan don’t give hope either that steps will be initiated towards soothing of the heated stage. I think, the situation is very fragile yet, in which exceptional attention should be provided by the West with its OSCE, as regional developments escalate the situation on NK conflict zone,” Alexander Rahr said.

In his concluding remarks he stated that for the time being efforts by the West in this direction don’t seem productive, as positions of the sides are very polarized.

By Araks Martirosyan