Moscow Realizes, if Aliyev Withdraws this Settlement Variant, He will Fail to Implement His Plan: Styopa Safaryan
Interview with Styopa Safaryan, founder and head of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs (AIISA).
Mr. Safaryan, in your opinion, what did Putin and Aliyev agree in Baku, on which Russia’s president, as mentioned in the official statement, informed Armenia’s president. Is it possible that it may refer to Karabakh issue?
There was an impression that Putin was hinting his meetings with presidents of Iran and Azerbaijan, and not Karabakh issue. However, we need to understand, that in Baku Putin and Aliyev have discussed Karabakh issue as well, thus, saying that Karabakh issue wasn’t discussed with Serzh Sargsyan, and with Aliyev only, won’t be proper. Simply Putin publicly states that he informed Armenia’s president on agreements reached during the well-known meeting.
Does Russia’s rapprochement with Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkey pursue the purpose of pushing the USA aside from the region?
Yes, surely. Russia is concerned that lifting sanctions from Iran creates a serious competitive condition for itself, and in fact, Iran is expanding in all directions. One of them is the South Caucasus. Russia perfectly realizes that in all these Iran-West communication interests are rather visible, and naturally attempts to turn unsanctioning of Iran through its project with implementation of North-South program. And by that it attempts to weaken West-Iran direction. Russia is bothered, that freeing Iran from restrictions is connected with weakening of its positions in the Caucasus, and in its turn, attempts to strengthen its axis with Iran. Naturally, as Russia’s big problem remains pushing the West aside from the South Caucasus, this is simply becoming a particle to that great game. Attempts of Russian dominance confirmation in Karabakh issue is added to this as well. Thus, at large, this was a big struggle between the West and Russia. And by Russia’s strategy all these circles are obliged to serve one purpose—weakening of the positions of the West.
What do you think, what the sides will gain and what will withdraw as a result of Russia-Azerbaijan and Russia-Turkey rapprochement?
Russia-Turkey rapprochement is a part of this program, which was prevented by the episode of the plane, and Turkey, however, agreed to enter into the Russian game against the West. The same refers to Azerbaijan. Accordingly, these two axes still contain risks both for us and the West.
Russia-Turkey “flirtation” brought the issue of S-400 into the agenda. Turkey’s FM Çavuşoğlu in his turn, stated that their NATO counterparts refuse supplying long-range air defense missiles and technologies to Turkey. Can Turkey go to such a deal with Russia as a NATO member country?
I’m a bit incredulous, that it’ll occur, that Russia will sell it, in particular, when it deployed them on border with Syria and Turkey and will hardly sell the same system to its contestant. However, in any case, it may occur, if Turkey totally leaves the West’s orbit and will become Russia’s partner in the game against the West.
Turkey, of course, has become a rather independent actor, very frequently opposing to the West, however, I don’t think that the West doesn’t possess leverages over Turkey to prevent it. Not accidentally, Turkey accuses the West in the attempted military coup, as at such hard and critical times the West won’t sit with hands folded and look how it loses its positions in Middle East and etc. Of course, now I can’t provide any grounded evidence, that the West was interested or was the organizer of attempted coup in Turkey, however, it could be one of its beneficiaries, on account of the big discontent in the West from Erdogan and the policy pursued by him. Accordingly, after likewise situations, it can’t be excluded if developments are taking that direction.
Mr. Safaryan, all these are followed by NKR president Bako Sahakyan’s statement, “We are ready for concessions, but in no way they should weaken country’s security.” What does this mean?
Probably they intend to hint that they anticipate concession from the side of Azerbaijan. Of course, it’s not good that NKR president also indirectly accepts that the so-called principles, put forward throughout the last 10-15 years, not realizing that the April war gave a serious ground to change the formula. However, they intend to hint that without any concession from the side of Azerbaijan regarding the status, nothing can happen.
And what do you think, which issues Hasanov failed to discuss or solve, that right after his visit Shoygu headed for Baku to personally talk to Aliyev?
Moscow realizes if Aliyev refuses this settlement variant, he will fail to implement his plan. And presently it’s noticed that concessions are touched upon only in Yerevan, and Baku didn’t give any sign, that it agrees on Artsakh’s independent status. Moscow realizes if not Baku agreement, naturally, Yerevan won’t go to any concession, evidence to which are both a few statements by Serzh Sargsyan and the recent one by Bako Sahakyan. Accordingly, to avoid failure of Russian plan this diplomatic storm is taking place. It should be noted, that in case of that plan it refers to deploying a Russian peacekeeping mission as well, and Shoygu’s involvement in this isn’t accidental. Perhaps, I consider, these kind of details should be discussed, which are concerning.
By Razmik Martirosyan
