Nagorno Karabakh’s Verdict
Nagorno-Karabakh can’t be included within Azerbaijan, in case of any settlement security of Nagorno Karabakh and its people should be guaranteed. This statement is periodically repeated by Armenia’s officials, when they have to touch upon concessions from the Armenian side in Karabakh conflict settlement, or as the officials like to say, touch upon ‘mutual concessions’.
The officials are right, despite they say it thinking or being aware of negotiations, or as it was assigned to. Yes, any document on Karabakh conflict settlement may be vital only in case of availability of mentioned mandatory factors or a few other deriving from them. And yes, security is the most crucial from those factors.
And the most troublesome and controversial is security guarantee, which is more important, than even the number of territories to be returned to Azerbaijan, or the status quo to be allocated to Nagorno Karabakh. Security issue is the most important, as even in case of referendum enshrining the most independent status and document with signatures of all UNO member countries’ leaders and even in case of its recognition by the world, Azerbaijan, independently or, more probably, by instigation and support of influential regional actors may threaten to Nagorno Karabakh and its people. In particular, when those regional powers, if not everyone, and then crucial and powerful from them, which are ready for everything in near and far future, will be interested in destabilization of the region and maintaining that situation. In particular, when the most interested one is Armenia’s de jure ally and security guarantor.
Yes, any guarantee formulated with the participation of leading powers, influential world organizations, in form of any document is of utmost importance. The point is, however, that security may be guaranteed not only and not much through documents, but by the role of that security guarantor and its power in international policy. Also by the price, that violator of security guarantee will pay for violating that guarantee.
In this case security addressee—Nagorno Karabakh and its society are rather vulnerable to that end. As officially security guarantor of Nagorno Karabakh and its people is the Republic of Armenia, which regarding security is vulnerable, like tank without the fuel in the battlefield or the soldier not receiving the command of shooting during the attack of the adversary.
Armenia is vulnerable regarding security to that degree, as it conditioned its security and provided all its means to Russia, which objectively and regarding geopolitical interest is connected to the main threats of Armenia’s security—Azerbaijan and Turkey. And Armenia, which conditioned its security with Russia, and handed its everything to the latter, not only declared itself as NK security guarantor, but also negotiates with Azerbaijan to find settlement to Karabakh conflict, and what is the most important, around providing security to Nagorno Karabakh. It negotiates, and mainly as a rule, under the umbrella of a country, purpose of which is deploying its own force on the conflict zone, for which it’s ready to pay Azerbaijan everything, and turning the country, hosting its only and last military base in the region, into a polygon.
Thus, in fact, today Armenia faces as much security issues, as Nagorno Karabakh, and maybe more, than Nagorno Karabakh. And under these conditions the question whether today the issue of concessions or mutual concessions in NK conflict negotiations is being touched upon or nor, isn’t a political one. It’s not even rhetorical, but phrasal or aesthetic. From the perspective of being pleasant to the eye. As when Armenia withdrew the right to make decisions on its own destiny and security, it’s bantering to think, that it may not concede but to mutually concede, i.e. not only give, but also receive in a trade, beneficiaries of which, and maybe the major one is Russia.
As long as Armenia’s security will be provided, and in fact, endangered by Russia, that much time Nagoro Karabakh will undergo periodical threats, and under such state of affairs any conflict settlement will become the verdict of Nagorno Karabakh and its people.
By Garnik Gevorgyan
