It’s a question how long Putin’s regime will continue its adventures from Middle East to Caucasus and elsewhere: Vicken Cheterian
Interview with Vicken Cheterian, representative of CIMERA center in Geneva, political analyst.
Operations by the Russian Federation and Bashar al-Assad’s regime have led to suspension of Russia-USA cooperation in this issue. What may Syrian war lead to?
As we saw Russia-USA dialogue, purpose of which was establishment of ceasefire in Syria, has failed and eastern regions of Aleppo, which are under the control of rebels, are in a horrible condition. It’s difficult to touch upon the implications. I don’t know whether Washington’s regime will change its policy in Syria or not. Today Russia with all its potential supports Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and the opposition doesn’t receive any support, their main supporter was Turkey, which remains silent regarding incidents in Aleppo, thus, it’s difficult to say how the situation will develop prior to presidential elections in the USA.
Why and by whose guilt the dialogue has been suspended?
I consider, it’s clear, that Russia attempts to gain time in Syria, and not seek for serious political solution. Obviously, it doesn’t tolerate that humanitarian assistance reached eastern districts of Aleppo, where the rebels are. Russia and Syrian regime undertake all steps to take other districts of Aleppo. Possibilities are the following: Damascus and Russia attempt to take main cities either by military force or leading to starvation, as they keep a range of cities and outskirts under siege. However, issue of Russia and Bashar al-Assad is that Syrian army is rather weakened. Even if they take new districts and regions, they don’t have the power to keep them.
We observed recently that Syrian regime recorded success in the outskirts of Damascus and to the direction of Aleppo, however, at the same time, it suffered losses in Hama city. This means that the powers aren’t enough. Under these conditions I don’t comprehend Moscow’s calculations, even if under powerful assistance Bashar isn’t able to record serious victories. If Bashar’s opponents, in particular, on international arena, make a decision to provide serious armaments to the rebels, Damascus’s position will more weaken that time. Thus, I think, that this year is a proper one to attempt to provide serious political solution to the Syrian war and not attempt to settle issues through war.
Mr. Cheterian, the situation has sharpened on NK conflict zone, and there are opinions, that Russia instigates tension in Karabakh against the USA, so that the latter withdrew in Syria, by weakening counteraction against Russia and Assad’s regime. Do these views seem grounded to you? May there be any liaison between Russia’s activities in Syria and in Karabakh?
Of course, I’m not sure what goes on in Karabakh frontline. I can’t speak of it, as I’m not aware of political negotiations. However, I have one view: Russia today, in particular, Putin’s regime is in a range of military adventures beyond its borders, starting from 2008 in Georgia, then the Crimea, Ukraine, Syria. Thus, I’m a bit concerned. Let’s not forget when the Soviet Union also disseminated its forces from Eastern Europe to Afghanistan, it didn’t stand. It’s a question whether Putin’s regime, balance of which is conditioned by oil prices, is no longer able to proceed with its adventures from the Middle East to the Caucasus and elsewhere, under low prices.
Returning to the Syrian war, days ago another tragic and bloody day was recorded for Aleppo’s Armenian community with a few casualties and wounded people. It’s clear, that future of the community is under serious threat in Syria. What steps are anticipated from Armenian Government, although these days certain steps have been taken?
I consider, Armenian Diaspora organizations, in particular, our state bears great responsibility before that community after Iraq’s attempt, when we didn’t support Iraqi Armenians. It’s already the fifth year, that Syrian war goes on, and we have responsibility before those people. We are obliged to assist Armenian family, intending to come to Armenia from Aleppo or Syria, and I should state that we haven’t seriously taken that responsibility.
By Araks Martirosyan
