Aliyev keeps on having hopes with Moscow in NK conflict settlement: German analyst
“Statements by Kerry and Aliyev make thinking that edges between the sides and mediators in negotiations lack,” German analyst Uwe Halbach told 168.am, reflecting to recent statements on NK conflict peaceful settlement process.
U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry stated recently, that “In nowadays world there are some frozen conflicts, including in Nagrono Karabakh, where the situation is impossible to settle now, firstly, for the reason that the leaders aren’t ready.” Earlier OSCE MG U.S. Co-Chair James Warlick stated, “We hope, that the presidents will agree on the next meeting. Presently venue and date of the next meeting haven’t been clarified. The Co-Chairs work to that direction with the parties to the conflict.” Yesterday it became known that Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev stated that they are urged to recognize Artsakh’s independence behind the closed doors.
“We are urged to force an agreement on the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence behind the closed doors. We don’t disclose many details, since there are certain diplomatic rules. Azerbaijan will never agree on this,” Azerbaijani media outlets cite Aliyev’s words. In his words active propaganda is pursued regarding Artsakh.
Uwe Halbach said that these statements uncover rather noteworthy details, of course, pursuing other diplomatic purposes as well. In his words, the statement by John Kerry on not being ready for the settlement was rather tough rhetoric, and it became clear after Ilham Aliyev’s observations, that main addressee of that statements was the Azerbaijani side.
“Obviously the Armenian side also disagrees with all variants set forward by the international community, in particular, concession of some territories, however, the Armenian side doesn’t deny that possibility, which is a structural approach in the conflict settlement process. However, the Azerbaijani side revealed by these statements that regarding recognition of Artsakh’s status, i.e. independence, Azerbaijani positions are uncompromising, however, this is one of the main settlement elements without the agreement on it, it’s impossible to move forward.
One may suppose from these statements, that there is USA-Azerbaijan discrepancy and interest contrast in this issue. To all likelihood, the Azerbaijani side hoped that Russia, on account of Azerbaijan’s role for Moscow, will force Armenia to go to unilateral concessions, however, this scenario failed, as for Russia Armenia is important as well, as a partner in the South Caucasus, and Russia avoids sacrificing one of them for the other. Besides, MG negotiations have been developed as well, the sides have been proposed to implement respective steps, which, however, Azerbaijan, continues refusing by basically accusing the USA or generally the West. This, of course, means that again we can’t touch upon the settlement,” Uwe Halbach said, analyzing the process of post-April negotiations.
He considers, Kerry’s pessimism in its turn, make thinking, that there are no even common edges in negotiations, which contains negative development and threat. The German analyst believes that the statements by Aliyev fact one point as well: Azerbaijan still hopes that Russia will settle the conflict in its favor, discrediting the West’s efforts in negotiations. However, Halbach reminded the statement by Russian officials, that there shouldn’t be winners or losers in NK conflict. “This means, that in case of the settlement scenario by any superpower unilateral concessions won’t be recorded,” Halbach concluded.
By Araks Martirosyan
