Forthcoming constitutional reforms not to become another test for Armenia-Turkey relations

The referendum of constitutional reforms, widely discussed in Turkey, in all likelihood, will be launched in spring 2017. The day of the referendum isn’t clarified, however, according to Turkish media outlets it’ll be held in late March or early April. Those very media outlets avoid stating on the results, moreover, they insist that the two discussions on constitutional reforms have enlarged the army of those saying “no”.

According to Turkish Dicken researches show that in the period of the last 2 weeks the number of those expressing against the forthcoming constitutional reforms, anticipating shift to presidential system, has increased. According to Hakan Bayrakçı, head of pollster Sonar, if after the attempted coup the number of those against constitutional reforms comprised 70%, after it that number has decreased to less than 50%. However, it grew throughout the last 2 weeks.

Constitutional reforms package supposes sharp enlargement of the president’s liabilities; after the changes he is entitled to appoint all crucial positions, rectors, judges, military officers. If received more than half of the citizens’ vote, Turkey will record a shift to the presidential system.

Bagrat Estukian, editor of the Armenian section of “Agos” Armenian periodical, told 168.am that this has been the purpose of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan after the double parliamentary elections in 2015, he intended to import the system, as after the elections, held in June 2015, Kurdish Democratic Party was involved in the parliament, due to which he appointed double elections.

According to Estukian, this system will provide Erdogan the opportunity to define control over internal and external political life, increasing his possibilities of making one-person decisions.

“This idea emerged, when Erdogan started to notice serious distrust among the public towards him. There was hope, that the attempted coup will considerably increase the number of supporters of this idea, however, those hopes didn’t become a reality, as arrests of the opposition representatives, Turkish foreign policy, in particular, in Syria, Turkish-Kurdish clashes, worsened relations with the West, discussions on reforms, during which the leading AKP members are acting rudely, they continue to deepen the existent disappointment among the society,” Bagrat Estukian said.

However, according to him referendum of these reforms won’t be without tremors for Turkey, like previous ones. He hesitated to answer how the Armenian community is tended to vote during the possible referendum, as he doesn’t know such a single position. Reflecting to the perspective of Armenia-Turkey relations after the presidential system is established in Turkey, Bagrat Estukian said he doesn’t anticipate any considerable change, as the leading political party today proceeds with its denialist policy.

“This issue has always been under his control, throughout these years Armenia-Turkey relations have been influenced by the policy pursued by Erdogan, thus, I consider results of the forthcoming elections won’t influence on Armenia-Turkey relations. Those relations currently lack and there is no ground to insist that Turkish authorities will attempt to record success in that direction,” he said.

By Araks Martirosyan