“Russia-Turkey-Syria-Iran cooperation will lead to developing zones of influence in Syria”
Interview with Sargis Grigoryan, expert on Arabic studies.
Mr. Grigoryan, negotiations on Syrian issue between the Syrian authorities and armed opposition have been launched in Astana by the exclusive format, the most realistic result of which, according to foreign affairs experts is consolidation around Syrian ceasefire. On account of moods among extra-Syrian powers and recent developments on the arena of Syrian conflict, what may be anticipated from this meeting?
I don’t have great expectations from Astana negotiations, as one of the parties involved is governmental delegation, which we know, and the other—opposition organizations, which have no considerable influence in Syria.
Liberation of Aleppo has been much touched upon in the period of last weeks as a crucial milestone on the way to the Syrian conflict. Judging from the period following liberation, at which stage is the conflict today? Should this be qualified as a new stage?
Currently Aleppo is liberated, however rather intensive, bloody clashes are taking place in the state. Thus, I wouldn’t hurry to link Aleppo’s liberation with the Syrian conflict settlement key stage. It may be fixed that the conflict has entered a new stage, however, I don’t observe such tendencies by liberation of Aleppo.
Just the contrary, developments have been noticed, which more deepened discordances, e.g. the opposition, besieged in the districts of Aleppo, provided the opportunity to go to other regional centers, for instance, Idlib, meanwhile, there were powers, which disagreed that governmental powers allowed them to go and were insisting that their destruction should continue, however, that opportunity wasn’t provided. This is a stage, where the are many extra-Syrian powers, in the activities of which there are systemized approaches, I mean Turkey, Russia, Iran, Syria, which act in certain cooperation.
What may that cooperation lead to?
Zones of influence will develop in Syria, circles of Turkish influence will develop in some territories, some territories will be Russian, accordingly, operations led by extra-Syrian powers will be recorded under the control of Syrian powers and within the borders of these regions. Yet in this format. The developments will show the further course. However, certain cracks are being observed in this format from the perspective of coordinating the influence in this or that Syrian territory.
For instance, al-Bab, which isn’t among the zones of influence I mentioned, the Islamic State is there, and here aspiration is observed by extra-Syrian powers, which will first liberate the city. Turkish military fails to enter the city, Islamists rather successfully confront that attack. However, a tendency is observed as well, that the governmental troops attempt to reach al-Bab from the south, here we’ll see which powers will enter al-Bab the first.
Is it possible that this cooperation may fail due to discordances?
We observe extra-Syrian powers, which have their own interests and attempt to bring their interests and goals into life. Those contrasts have so deepened, actors are so different, their interests are so diverse that I’m not optimistic regarding the results at this stage. Just the contrary, contrasts more deepen with time.
How will the activity of Trump administration be reflected in the situation in Syria?
Trump is a Republican Party representative, Republicans have always been distinguished with their tough positons in Middle East developments, more supported sharp activities. It may be supposed that the role of the USA will a bit activate in the Middle East.
The USA is led by this course. Just from the very beginning of the conflict the USA intended not to get actively involved, which is observed in this period. Maybe some activity will be recorded, however, the USA won’t go to wide-scale land operations. At least—in near future. Although I consider rather speedy settlement of Syrian conflict would be recorded in case, when wide-scale land operations were carried out by extra-Syrian leading powers.
By Araks Martirosyan
