Moscow appeared in a complicated situation in Armenia’s domestic policy developments: Alexander Skakov
Interview with Alexander Skakov, Russian political scientist, expert on the Caucasus issues.
Mr. Skakov, prior to parliamentary elections former PM Hovik Abrahamyan, who was the second figure in the leading RPA, stated on leaving the party. Former PAP leader Gagik Tsarukyan announced on his return to politics, who attempts to form a coalition ahead of elections. Against the background of these elections official visit of Armenian PM Karen Karapetyan to Moscow remained in the shadow. How the visit results may be assessed, on account of views, that Karapetyan may more effectively negotiate with the Russian side, than former PMs?
I consider for different reasons, from which: Karapetyan’s Russian ties, which preceded his appointment in the PM’s position, on account of his authority not as a political figure, but a good manager, Moscow has the most positive attitude toward Karapetyan. I may state our attitude isn’t so definite toward incumbent Armenian president, as some steps taken by him are not so equivalent, however, I think Karapetyan’s appointment was a correct step and it was properly estimated in Moscow. Thus, I consider visit results may also be regarded as productive: the visit was held in a working atmosphere, as the PMs stated themselves.
That visit is discussed in Armenia from the perspective of domestic realities and Armenia’s pre-election situation development. Is that visit observed in the dimension of domestic or foreign policies?
I consider, both domestic and foreign policy component may be observed. If Moscow sympathizes Karapetyan, it isn’t against showing attitude towards him ahead of elections. The first 100 days of Karapetyan’s officiating have completed, and I consider, visit with those results was anticipated and proper.
The information circulating these days was also noteworthy: former PM Hovik Abrahamyan was in Russia, who currently attempts to position himself in the political field anew and at the pre-election stage. Moreover, he met Russian PM Medvedev. What do you think, can it influence on developments of Armenia’s internal life?
I don’t think that Moscow observes him as a perspective political figure. This period of the meeting is considered a coincidence. The issue is that there is serious business lobby linked to Armenia, also there are business ties with the former PM. Thus, undoubtedly, Abrahamyan is using the contact on the highest level to develop his own business interests on account of former ties, maybe hoping that the meeting will be observed as support by Moscow. But Moscow won’t bet on former PM as a political figure, I don’t think that anyone regards him seriously on account of his very low rating and the policy pursued in the past.
On which power or figure will Moscow bet, which usually puts post-Soviet hopes in the leading powers or the incumbent president?
As I said, in this case president’s having hopes with Moscow is very complicated, as despite rather good attitude towards him here, not all his steps seem adequate under current state of affairs. Thus, a serious, big issue has emerged, as there is no any power, any figure, on which Moscow may bet. On the one hand, we have the tradition to have hopes with the leading power, in this case, with the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), however, there is no full trust towards the policy pursued by the authorities in Moscow, there is no trust either, which will be able to give solution to ongoing challenges in time.
Which steps by Sargsyan do you mean?
I may state one of them: constitutional reforms, adoption of which was quickly organized. This was an incomprehensible step.
In fact, you consider Moscow will be in the position of an observer ahead of elections.
Yes, currently Moscow is in the position of an observer, as it doesn’t know with whom it may have hopes. On account of low authority of incumbent leadership, which everybody knows, summer developments around the seizure of the police precinct also delivered a blow to that authority, it perfectly uncovered the current attitude. However, on the other hand, the rating is surely low, and Moscow sees no alternative to the leadership, maybe there are alternatives for the society in Yerevan, but not for Moscow. Thus, Moscow appeared in a rather complicated position.
Some experts in Armenia consider that Karen Karapetyan may become such an alternative. What do you think of these allegations?
It’ll depend on Karen Karapetyan himself and his further activity. Principally, why not? There were cases, when initially technical figures like Karapetyan, who have overcome technical issues, became a political figure. Maybe an alternative will be observed, however, at the moment it’s being shaped with difficulty.
Former PAP leader Gagik Tsarukyan is developing a coalition. To your mind, what are Tsarukyan’s possibilities like on account of his past political activity?
Frankly speaking, taking into consideration what and how it occurred, it seemed to me, that he doesn’t have any chance to return to politics, i.e. at least he may attempt to return, which he currently is doing, but he left rather scandalously and shamefully. I don’t observe a possibility of success for him.
By Araks Martirosyan
